Week 1 2026 · September 3, 2026
Massachusetts at Rutgers, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?
Massachusetts beat Rutgers 37–21, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10.
An off day for Rutgers: its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Massachusetts it would win 91% of the time; with this day’s form, 26%. The numbers
Before kickoff Rutgers was a 97% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 15:00 left): Massachusetts was stopped on 3rd & 15, worth 16 points of win probability to Massachusetts.
Final
 Massachusetts Minutemen | 37 |
|---|---|
 Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 21 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +26 Massachusetts lucky · −26 Rutgers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Massachusetts wins 7, Rutgers wins 3.
- 1 MASS 33 RUTG 0
- 2 MASS 24 RUTG 0
- 3 MASS 21 RUTG 3
- 4 MASS 28 RUTG 14
- 5 MASS 24 RUTG 14
- 6 MASS 31 RUTG 24
- 7 MASS 20 RUTG 17
- 8 MASS 21 RUTG 24
- 9 MASS 10 RUTG 17
- 10 MASS 10 RUTG 24
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Rutgers
Its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Massachusetts it would win 91% of the time; with this day’s form, 26%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
65 points apart for Rutgers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Massachusetts offenseEPA per play gained | +0.22 | +0.01 | better by 0.21 |
| Massachusetts defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.04 | +0.11 | better by 0.15 |
| Rutgers offenseEPA per play gained | −0.04 | +0.12 | worse by 0.16 |
| Rutgers defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.22 | +0.16 | worse by 0.06 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Massachusetts wins 74% of them, Rutgers 26%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Massachusetts by 16.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Massachusetts by 17+ | 32.5% |
| Massachusetts by 9–16 | 19.7% |
| Massachusetts by 1–8 | 19.1% |
| Level after regulation | 4.7% |
| Rutgers by 1–8 | 12.4% |
| Rutgers by 9–16 | 6.9% |
| Rutgers by 17+ | 4.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- D. Morris, 30 yds made · 86% expected
- D. Morris, 52 yds made · 50% expected
- D. Morris, 31 yds made · 85% expected
Penalties: Massachusetts 9 for 65 yards, Rutgers 7 for 43 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 4:21 | Delay of Game on Rutgers, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MASS +0.3 pts |
| Q2 11:50 | Illegal Substitution on Rutgers, 2 yards · pre-snap | +1% MASS +0.6 pts |
| Q2 10:30 | Pass Interference on Massachusetts, 12 yards, wiping out the play | +7% RUTG +5.1 pts |
| Q2 9:01 | Intentional Grounding on Rutgers, 9 yards | +1% MASS +0.6 pts |
| Q2 2:26 | Penalty on Massachusetts, 8 yards | +3% MASS +1.1 pts |
| Q2 2:00 | False Start on Rutgers, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MASS +0.6 pts |
| Q2 1:12 | Delay of Game on Rutgers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MASS +0.2 pts |
| Q2 0:38 | Illegal Touching on Massachusetts, 0 yards | +1% RUTG +0.5 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Holding on Massachusetts, 10 yards | +6% RUTG +2.0 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Illegal Snap on Massachusetts, 5 yards · pre-snap | +7% RUTG +2.4 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | False Start on Massachusetts, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% MASS +1.5 pts |
| Q3 1:28 | Holding on Rutgers, 10 yards | +2% MASS +0.6 pts |
| Q4 11:32 | False Start on Massachusetts, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MASS +0.4 pts |
| Q4 10:56 | Illegal Shift on Massachusetts, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +1% RUTG +2.4 pts |
| Q4 10:17 | Face Mask on Massachusetts, 15 yards | 0% RUTG +1.6 pts |
| Q4 4:43 | Unnecessary Roughness on Rutgers, 7 yards | 0% MASS +0.4 pts |
When it happened
Rutgers’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 99%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 10:30 | Pass Interference on Massachusetts, 12 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +7% RUTG | RUTG: Turnover |
| 2 | Q2 10:16 | Rutgers fumbled and Massachusetts recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +3% MASS | RUTG: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 4:18 | Massachusetts was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected | +4% RUTG | MASS: Field goal |
| 4 | Q2 2:26 | Penalty on Massachusetts, 8 yardsJudgment calls | +3% MASS | RUTG: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 15:00 | Massachusetts converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedMassachusetts was stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 21% expectedMassachusetts fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Holding on Massachusetts, 10 yardsJudgment callsIllegal Snap on Massachusetts, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsFalse Start on Massachusetts, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +16% MASS | MASS: Field goal |
| 6 | Q3 8:22 | D. Morris made a 52-yard field goalKicks · 50% expected for him, 3 of 8 from 45+ before | +10% MASS | MASS: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 5:10 | Rutgers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +4% RUTG | RUTG: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q3 3:35 | Rutgers was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +10% MASS | RUTG: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Massachusetts 95% · Rutgers 5%
- Final margin
- Massachusetts by 16
- Luck in points
- 4.7 for Massachusetts
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Massachusetts by 11.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Massachusetts 74% · Rutgers 26% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · 
Massachusetts · 
Rutgers
More from Week 1 2026
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