luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2026 · September 4, 2026

San José State at Eastern Michigan, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?

San José State beat Eastern Michigan 27–21, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10. Eastern Michigan had the bounces: pre-snap flags alone were worth 26 points of win probability to Eastern Michigan.

Before kickoff Eastern Michigan was a 54% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 0:53 left): Return touchdown by Eastern Michigan, worth 35 points of win probability to Eastern Michigan.

Final

San José State Spartans 27
Eastern Michigan Eagles 21

September 4, 2026 · Rynearson Stadium · Closing line: Eastern Michigan −1.5

Luck index +35 San José State lucky · −35 Eastern Michigan

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. San José State wins 7, Eastern Michigan wins 3.

  1. 1 SJSU 34 EMU 3
  2. 2 SJSU 30 EMU 7
  3. 3 SJSU 25 EMU 7
  4. 4 SJSU 17 EMU 3
  5. 5 SJSU 17 EMU 7
  6. 6 SJSU 16 EMU 9
  7. 7 SJSU 13 EMU 10
  8. 8 SJSU 10 EMU 13
  9. 9 SJSU 3 EMU 12
  10. 10 SJSU 3 EMU 21

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

San José State wins 65% of them, Eastern Michigan 35%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: San José State by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
San José State by 17+25.6%
San José State by 9–1620.0%
San José State by 1–818.7%
Level after regulation4.8%
Eastern Michigan by 1–815.5%
Eastern Michigan by 9–169.3%
Eastern Michigan by 17+6.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +8.3 points to San José State: the final margin was San José State by 6, without the luck Eastern Michigan by 2.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • T. Sinatra, 45 yds made · 63% expected
  • T. Sinatra, 49 yds made · 56% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: San José State 13 for 100 yards, Eastern Michigan 4 for 35 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:41 False Start on Eastern Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% SJSU +1.9 pts
Q1 12:02 False Start on San José State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% EMU +0.1 pts
Q1 10:22 Delay of Game on San José State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% EMU +0.7 pts
Q1 5:09 False Start on Eastern Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SJSU +2.2 pts
Q2 13:20 Holding on San José State, 10 yards +3% EMU +1.2 pts
Q2 7:17 Holding on San José State, 10 yards +4% EMU +1.7 pts
Q2 5:20 Delay of Game on San José State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% EMU +0.3 pts
Q2 3:17 Pass Interference on San José State, 15 yards +3% EMU +1.2 pts
Q2 1:47 False Start on San José State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% EMU +0.5 pts
Q2 0:01 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Eastern Michigan, 15 yards +4% SJSU +1.4 pts
Q3 11:53 Delay of Game on San José State, 5 yards · pre-snap +21% EMU +1.1 pts
Q3 1:57 Holding on San José State, 10 yards, wiping out the play +10% EMU +2.6 pts
Q3 0:19 Face Mask on San José State, 15 yards +10% EMU +2.9 pts
Q4 14:48 Holding on Eastern Michigan, 10 yards +2% SJSU +0.6 pts
Q4 3:19 Delay of Game on San José State, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% EMU +0.3 pts
Q4 3:19 False Start on San José State, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% EMU +0.3 pts
Q4 1:55 False Start on San José State, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% EMU +0.7 pts

When it happened

Eastern Michigan’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 76%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Eastern Michigan was ahead in it, below while San José State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 2:19 San José State was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +8% EMU SJSU: Turnover
2 Q3 11:53 Delay of Game on San José State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +21% EMU EMU: Touchdown
3 Q3 8:25 San José State converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +7% SJSU SJSU: Touchdown
4 Q3 1:57 Holding on San José State, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +10% EMU EMU: Punt
5 Q3 0:53 San José State fumbled and Eastern Michigan recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by Eastern MichiganSpecial teams +35% EMU SJSU: Punt
6 Q3 0:19 Face Mask on San José State, 15 yardsJudgment calls +10% EMU EMU: Punt
7 Q4 9:28 San José State converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +11% SJSU SJSU: Punt
8 Q4 1:37 T. Sinatra made a 49-yard field goalKicks · 56% expected for him, 1 of 1 from 45+ before +6% SJSU SJSU: End of game

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

San José State 38% · Eastern Michigan 62%

Final margin
San José State by 6
Luck in points
8.3 for San José State
Luck-adjusted margin
Eastern Michigan by 2.3
Replay with same day's form
San José State 65% · Eastern Michigan 35% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · San José State · Eastern Michigan

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