luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Mountain West · 2026 season, in progress

San José State Spartans: luck and expected wins

San José State is 2–2 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 2.0 wins. Luck added 0.0: the 66th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 1–0.

2026, game by game

How often San José State wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 @ USC L 26–42 2% −2
Week 1 @ Eastern Michigan W 27–21 65% +35
Week 2 vs Cal Poly W 30–20 77% +23
Week 3 vs Fresno State L 10–26 52% −52

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

WeekGameOur pickSan José State win chance
Week 5 · Oct 3 at Hawai'i Hawai'i by 3.1 42%
Week 6 · Oct 9 vs Wyoming San José State by 5.5 63%
Week 7 · Oct 17 at UTEP San José State by 4.7 61%
Week 8 · Oct 24 at Nevada Nevada by 5.7 37%
Week 9 · Oct 31 vs New Mexico New Mexico by 14.3 19%
Week 10 · Nov 7 vs Northern Illinois San José State by 7.3 67%
Week 11 · Nov 14 at Air Force Air Force by 10.1 28%
Week 12 · Nov 21 vs UNLV UNLV by 7.5 33%
Week 13 · Nov 27 vs North Dakota State North Dakota State by 14.6 20%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in San José State’s favor.

KindWinsPoints
3rd & 4th downs+0.07−2.8
Kicks+0.05−0.7
Fumble bounces−0.12−3.2
Pre-snap flags−0.45−7.8

Luckiest wins

Wins San José State takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
2026 Week 1 @ Eastern Michigan W 27–21 65% +35
2025 Week 6 vs New Mexico W 35–28 67% +33
2026 Week 2 vs Cal Poly W 30–20 77% +23
2025 Week 10 vs Hawai'i W 45–38 78% +22
2025 Week 4 vs Idaho W 31–28 91% +9

Unluckiest losses

Losses San José State would win most often in a replay.

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
2025 Week 11 vs Air Force L 16–26 95% −95
2025 Week 5 @ Stanford L 29–30 57% −57
2026 Week 3 vs Fresno State L 10–26 52% −52
2025 Week 1 vs Central Michigan L 14–16 35% −35
2025 Week 8 @ Utah State L 25–30 29% −29

Earlier seasons

SeasonRecordReplay winsLuckOne-scorePostseason
20253–9 5.2−2.2 3–4–
2025, game by game
WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 vs Central Michigan L 14–16 35% −35
Week 2 @ Texas L 7–38 14% −14
Week 4 vs Idaho W 31–28 91% +9
Week 5 @ Stanford L 29–30 57% −57
Week 6 vs New Mexico W 35–28 67% +33
Week 7 @ Wyoming L 28–35 13% −13
Week 8 @ Utah State L 25–30 29% −29
Week 10 vs Hawai'i W 45–38 78% +22
Week 11 vs Air Force L 16–26 95% −95
Week 12 @ Nevada L 10–55 1% −1
Week 13 @ San Diego State L 3–25 23% −23
Week 14 vs Fresno State L 14–41 16% −16

More

How many wins does San José State have in 2026?

2–2 so far. Replayed with the way both teams played, its games were worth 2.0 wins.

Was San José State lucky or unlucky in 2026?

Neither: about as lucky as the average team so far: 0.0 wins of luck, the 66th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams.

What was San José State’s luckiest season?

2026: 2–2 from play worth 2.0 wins, 0.0 of luck. The unluckiest: 2025, 3–9 from play worth 5.2 (−2.2).