Week 10 2025 · November 1, 2025
Hawai'i at San José State, Week 10 2025: who deserved to win?
San José State beat Hawai'i 45–38, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 8 of 10.
Before kickoff San José State was a 56% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 6:17 left): False Start on San José State, 5 yards, worth 11 points of win probability to San José State.
Final
 Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors | 38 |
|---|---|
 San José State Spartans | 45 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +22 San José State about even · −22 Hawai'i
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Hawai'i wins 2, San José State wins 8.
- 1 HAW 49 SJSU 34
- 2 HAW 39 SJSU 35
- 3 HAW 42 SJSU 45
- 4 HAW 17 SJSU 23
- 5 HAW 28 SJSU 37
- 6 HAW 14 SJSU 28
- 7 HAW 14 SJSU 31
- 8 HAW 17 SJSU 38
- 9 HAW 0 SJSU 27
- 10 HAW 20 SJSU 55
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Hawai'i wins 22% of them, San José State 78%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: San José State by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Hawai'i by 17+ | 3.7% |
| Hawai'i by 9–16 | 7.1% |
| Hawai'i by 1–8 | 10.4% |
| Level after regulation | 2.0% |
| San José State by 1–8 | 20.9% |
| San José State by 9–16 | 17.8% |
| San José State by 17+ | 38.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- M. Brown, 24 yds made · 90% expected
- K. Matsuzawa, 24 yds made · 95% expected
Penalties: Hawai'i 10 for 75 yards, San José State 5 for 33 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:48 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Hawai'i, 15 yards | +3% SJSU +1.6 pts |
| Q1 14:02 | Offside on Hawai'i, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SJSU +0.7 pts |
| Q1 9:05 | False Start on Hawai'i, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SJSU +0.5 pts |
| Q1 7:08 | Personal Foul on San José State, 3 yards | +2% HAW +0.9 pts |
| Q2 12:29 | False Start on San José State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% HAW +0.7 pts |
| Q2 7:33 | Holding on San José State, 10 yards | 0% HAW +0.6 pts |
| Q2 7:18 | Offside on Hawai'i, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SJSU +0.7 pts |
| Q2 7:11 | Offside on Hawai'i, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SJSU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 6:41 | Personal Foul on Hawai'i, 15 yards | +3% SJSU +1.6 pts |
| Q2 6:17 | False Start on San José State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +11% SJSU +0.7 pts |
| Q2 4:01 | Offside on Hawai'i, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SJSU +0.3 pts |
| Q3 10:48 | False Start on Hawai'i, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% SJSU +1.4 pts |
| Q3 8:20 | Holding on Hawai'i, 10 yards | +2% SJSU +1.8 pts |
| Q3 3:54 | Holding on San José State, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +1% HAW +1.8 pts |
| Q4 2:36 | Ineligible Downfield on Hawai'i, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +2% SJSU +1.3 pts |
When it happened
San José State’s chance of winning
As low as 32% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 7:43 | Hawai'i converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +5% HAW | HAW: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 13:48 | San José State converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +6% SJSU | SJSU: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 11:11 | San José State converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +5% SJSU | SJSU: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 6:53 | San José State fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +4% SJSU | SJSU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 6:17 | False Start on San José State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +11% SJSU | HAW: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 11:47 | Hawai'i converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +5% HAW | HAW: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 9:32 | Hawai'i converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +7% HAW | HAW: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 6:05 | San José State converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +4% SJSU | SJSU: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Hawai'i 30% · San José State 70%
- Final margin
- San José State by 7
- Luck in points
- 3.7 for San José State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- San José State by 3.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Hawai'i 22% · San José State 78% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · 
Hawai'i · 
San José State
More from Week 10 2025
- Army at Air Force ARMY 20–17 · replay 34% for the winner
- New Mexico at UNLV UNM 40–35 · replay 70% for the winner
- Fresno State at Boise State FRES 30–7 · replay 96% for the winner
- Wyoming at San Diego State SDSU 24–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Tennessee OU 33–27 · replay 17% for the winner
- Duke at Clemson DUKE 46–45 · replay 22% for the winner
- Mississippi State at Arkansas MSST 38–35 · replay 23% for the winner
- Washington State at Oregon State ORST 10–7 · replay 27% for the winner
- Miami at SMU SMU 26–20 · replay 32% for the winner
- Georgia Tech at NC State NCSU 48–36 · replay 35% for the winner
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