luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 10 2025 · November 1, 2025

Duke at Clemson, Week 10 2025: who deserved to win?

Duke beat Clemson 46–45, but the replays lean toward Clemson: it takes 8 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 21 points of win probability to Duke.

Before kickoff Clemson was a 60% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:40 left): Duke’s two-point try was good, worth 22 points of win probability to Duke.

Final

Duke Blue Devils 46
Clemson Tigers 45

November 1, 2025 · Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC) · Closing line: Clemson −4

Luck index +78 Duke very lucky · −78 Clemson

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Duke wins 2, Clemson wins 8.

  1. 1 DUKE 30 CLEM 14
  2. 2 DUKE 31 CLEM 27
  3. 3 DUKE 20 CLEM 23
  4. 4 DUKE 28 CLEM 35
  5. 5 DUKE 21 CLEM 31
  6. 6 DUKE 14 CLEM 28
  7. 7 DUKE 28 CLEM 45
  8. 8 DUKE 14 CLEM 34
  9. 9 DUKE 3 CLEM 27
  10. 10 DUKE 14 CLEM 48

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Duke wins 22% of them, Clemson 78%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Duke by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Duke by 17+3.7%
Duke by 9–165.8%
Duke by 1–810.5%
Level after regulation2.1%
Clemson by 1–822.6%
Clemson by 9–1617.3%
Clemson by 17+37.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.2 points to Duke: the final margin was Duke by 1, without the luck Clemson by 1.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • N. Hauser, 22 yds made · 92% expected
  • T. Pelino, 37 yds made · 78% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Duke 9 for 62 yards, Clemson 8 for 87 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:13 Block Below the Waist on Clemson, 15 yards +3% DUKE +1.6 pts
Q1 10:08 Offside on Clemson, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DUKE +0.9 pts
Q1 9:26 Offside on Duke, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CLEM +0.7 pts
Q1 9:19 Holding on Clemson, 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% DUKE +3.1 pts
Q1 3:27 Holding on Duke, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% CLEM +2.0 pts
Q1 2:53 Face Mask on Clemson, 15 yards +4% DUKE +1.6 pts
Q1 2:35 Delay of Game on Duke, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CLEM +0.6 pts
Q2 5:55 Pass Interference on Duke, 8 yards +5% CLEM +1.9 pts
Q2 1:21 Offside on Duke, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CLEM +0.4 pts
Q2 1:14 Block Below the Waist on Duke, 4 yards +2% CLEM +1.0 pts
Q2 0:18 Pass Interference on Clemson, 10 yards +1% DUKE +0.7 pts
Q3 14:04 Holding on Duke, 10 yards +5% CLEM +1.9 pts
Q3 5:14 False Start on Clemson, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DUKE +0.6 pts
Q4 2:32 False Start on Duke, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% CLEM +0.8 pts
Q4 1:29 Holding on Duke, 10 yards +4% CLEM +0.9 pts
Q4 0:49 Pass Interference on Clemson, 15 yards 0% DUKE +3.7 pts
Q4 0:38 Pass Interference on Clemson, 12 yards +4% DUKE +0.4 pts

When it happened

Clemson’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 96%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Clemson was ahead in it, below while Duke was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:50 Duke converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +6% DUKE DUKE: End of half
2 Q1 9:19 Holding on Clemson, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% DUKE DUKE: Touchdown
3 Q1 1:39 Duke converted 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +8% DUKE DUKE: Touchdown
4 Q3 10:20 Clemson converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +7% CLEM CLEM: Field goal
5 Q3 2:49 Clemson converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +6% CLEM CLEM: Field goal
6 Q4 11:58 Duke converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +7% DUKE DUKE: Field goal
7 Q4 4:13 Duke converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +7% DUKE DUKE: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:40 Duke’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +22% DUKE –

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Duke 44% · Clemson 56%

Final margin
Duke by 1
Luck in points
2.2 for Duke
Luck-adjusted margin
Clemson by 1.2
Replay with same day's form
Duke 22% · Clemson 78% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · Duke · Clemson

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