Louisville at Virginia Tech, Week 10 2025: who deserved it?

Final

Louisville Cardinals	28
Virginia Tech Hokies	16

November 1, 2025 · Lane Stadium · Closing line: Louisville −10.5

Replay with same day's form

Luck index +5 Louisville about even · −5 Virginia Tech

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Louisville wins 10, Virginia Tech wins 0.

1 LOU 45 VT 0
2 LOU 44 VT 7
3 LOU 42 VT 10
4 LOU 41 VT 12
5 LOU 31 VT 7
6 LOU 31 VT 10
7 LOU 21 VT 3
8 LOU 24 VT 10
9 LOU 33 VT 24
10 LOU 14 VT 10

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

Before kickoff

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

Same teams, fresh game

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Louisville wins 95% of them, Virginia Tech 5%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Louisville by 12.

Actual: Louisville by 12 494235282114707142128354249 ← Louisville win by Virginia Tech win by →

Show as a table

Final margin in the replays	Share of replays
Louisville by 17+	70.6%
Louisville by 9–16	14.6%
Louisville by 1–8	9.6%
Level after regulation	1.3%
Virginia Tech by 1–8	2.5%
Virginia Tech by 9–16	1.1%
Virginia Tech by 17+	0.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Fumble bounces +5% VT

3rd & 4th downs +4% LOU

Pre-snap flags +4% VT

All luck +5% VT

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.4 points to Virginia Tech: the final margin was Louisville by 12, without the luck Louisville by 15.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Louisville 6 for 52 yards, Virginia Tech 5 for 46 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

When	Flag	Win probability for
Q1 7:19	False Start on Louisville, 5 yards · pre-snap	+2% VT +1.3 pts
Q1 2:16	Offside on Louisville, 2 yards · pre-snap	+6% VT +3.4 pts
Q2 4:59	Roughing the Passer on Virginia Tech, 15 yards	+4% LOU +1.8 pts
Q2 1:50	Face Mask on Louisville, 15 yards	+1% VT +0.5 pts
Q2 0:59	False Start on Virginia Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap	+1% LOU +0.6 pts
Q3 13:21	Holding on Virginia Tech, 10 yards	+2% LOU +0.6 pts
Q3 8:52	Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Virginia Tech, 11 yards	+2% LOU +0.7 pts
Q3 2:07	False Start on Louisville, 5 yards · pre-snap	+2% VT +0.7 pts
Q4 11:38	Illegal Shift on Virginia Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap	+3% LOU +1.2 pts
Q4 5:40	Holding on Louisville, 10 yards	+1% VT +0.6 pts
Q4 3:50	Block Below the Waist on Louisville, 15 yards	+2% VT +1.1 pts

When it happened

Virginia Tech’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 65%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Virginia Tech 50% Louisville Q1Q2Q3Q4 1234567

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Virginia Tech was ahead in it, below while Louisville was.

#	When	What happened	Win probability for	Next drive
1	Q1 2:16	Offside on Louisville, 2 yardsPre-snap flags	+6% VT	VT: Touchdown
2	Q2 4:59	Roughing the Passer on Virginia Tech, 15 yardsJudgment calls	+4% LOU	LOU: Turnover on downs
3	Q2 3:07	Louisville was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expected	+7% VT	LOU: End of half
4	Q3 13:27	Louisville was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 51% expected	+5% VT	LOU: Punt
5	Q3 9:07	Louisville converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 51% expected	+5% LOU	LOU: Touchdown
6	Q3 2:21	Virginia Tech fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50	+5% VT	VT: Punt
7	Q4 6:30	Virginia Tech was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected	+8% LOU	VT: Turnover on downs
8	Q4 5:57	Virginia Tech was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected	+8% LOU	VT: Turnover on downs

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Louisville 99% · Virginia Tech 1%

Final margin: Louisville by 12
Luck in points: 3.4 for Virginia Tech
Luck-adjusted margin: Louisville by 15.4
Replay with same day's form: Louisville 95% · Virginia Tech 5% unchanged: why

How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

3rd & 4th downs 50%Fumble bounces 100%Kicks 100%Judgment calls 0%Pre-snap flags 100%Special teams 0%

What counts Referee calls Momentum after a lucky break none

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

Offside on Louisville, 2 yardsQ1 2:16
Roughing the Passer on Virginia Tech, 15 yardsQ2 4:59
Louisville was stopped on 4th & 1Q2 3:07
Louisville was stopped on 3rd & 4Q3 13:27
Louisville converted 3rd & 4Q3 9:07
Virginia Tech fumbled and recovered itQ3 2:21
Virginia Tech was stopped on 3rd & 2Q4 6:30
Virginia Tech was stopped on 4th & 3Q4 5:57

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · Louisville · Virginia Tech

More from Week 10 2025

Duke at Clemson DUKE 46–45 · replay 22% for the winner
Miami at SMU SMU 26–20 · replay 32% for the winner
Georgia Tech at NC State NCSU 48–36 · replay 35% for the winner
Virginia at California UVA 31–21 · replay 54% for the winner
Pittsburgh at Stanford PITT 35–20 · replay 83% for the winner
North Carolina at Syracuse UNC 27–10 · replay 94% for the winner
Notre Dame at Boston College ND 25–10 · replay 96% for the winner
Wake Forest at Florida State FSU 42–7 · replay 99% for the winner
Oklahoma at Tennessee OU 33–27 · replay 17% for the winner
Mississippi State at Arkansas MSST 38–35 · replay 23% for the winner
Washington State at Oregon State ORST 10–7 · replay 27% for the winner
Army at Air Force ARMY 20–17 · replay 34% for the winner

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