luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 10 2025 · November 1, 2025

Oklahoma at Tennessee, Week 10 2025: who deserved to win?

Oklahoma beat Tennessee 33–27, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, Tennessee wins 8 of 10. Luck ran its way: kicks alone were worth 10 points of win probability to Oklahoma.

Before kickoff Tennessee was a 58% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 8:07 left): Tennessee was stopped on 4th & 1, worth 10 points of win probability to Oklahoma.

Final

Oklahoma Sooners 33
Tennessee Volunteers 27

November 1, 2025 · Neyland Stadium · Closing line: Tennessee −3

Luck index +83 Oklahoma very lucky · −83 Tennessee

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Oklahoma wins 2, Tennessee wins 8.

  1. 1 OU 29 TENN 17
  2. 2 OU 20 TENN 17
  3. 3 OU 7 TENN 9
  4. 4 OU 21 TENN 26
  5. 5 OU 13 TENN 21
  6. 6 OU 13 TENN 24
  7. 7 OU 14 TENN 29
  8. 8 OU 13 TENN 33
  9. 9 OU 17 TENN 41
  10. 10 OU 7 TENN 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Oklahoma wins 17% of them, Tennessee 83%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Oklahoma by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Oklahoma by 17+2.1%
Oklahoma by 9–165.4%
Oklahoma by 1–89.2%
Level after regulation2.1%
Tennessee by 1–821.9%
Tennessee by 9–1618.6%
Tennessee by 17+40.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.7 points to Oklahoma: the final margin was Oklahoma by 6, without the luck Tennessee by 1.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • M. Gilbert, 45 yds made · 65% expected
  • M. Gilbert, 37 yds missed · 80% expected
  • T. Sandell, 55 yds made · 49% expected
  • T. Sandell, 51 yds made · 57% expected
  • T. Sandell, 40 yds made · 77% expected
  • T. Sandell, 55 yds made · 50% expected
  • M. Gilbert, 48 yds made · 59% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Oklahoma 12 for 109 yards, Tennessee 3 for 25 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:56 Pass Interference on Oklahoma, 9 yards +6% TENN +3.2 pts
Q1 12:39 Illegal Formation on Tennessee, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +7% OU +3.6 pts
Q1 8:20 Roughing the Passer on Oklahoma, 15 yards 0% TENN +1.1 pts
Q1 1:52 Delay of Game on Oklahoma, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TENN 0.0 pts
Q1 1:06 False Start on Oklahoma, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TENN +1.0 pts
Q2 10:05 Personal Foul on Tennessee, 15 yards +4% OU +1.6 pts
Q2 9:15 Illegal Formation on Oklahoma, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TENN +0.8 pts
Q2 4:50 Face Mask on Oklahoma, 15 yards +4% TENN +1.6 pts
Q2 0:36 Offside on Oklahoma, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TENN +0.4 pts
Q3 11:11 Holding on Oklahoma, 10 yards +4% TENN +1.4 pts
Q3 5:06 False Start on Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% OU +0.7 pts
Q3 4:10 False Start on Oklahoma, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TENN +0.6 pts
Q4 10:33 Pass Interference on Oklahoma, 15 yards +8% TENN +2.8 pts
Q4 6:47 False Start on Oklahoma, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TENN +0.6 pts
Q4 1:40 Personal Foul on Oklahoma, 15 yards 0% TENN +0.4 pts

When it happened

Tennessee’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 80%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Tennessee was ahead in it, below while Oklahoma was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:56 Pass Interference on Oklahoma, 9 yardsJudgment calls +6% TENN TENN: Touchdown
2 Q1 12:39 Illegal Formation on Tennessee, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +7% OU OU: Punt
3 Q3 6:47 Oklahoma fumbled and Tennessee recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% TENN OU: Touchdown
4 Q3 5:38 Tennessee was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +6% OU TENN: Punt
5 Q3 3:30 Oklahoma fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% OU OU: Touchdown
6 Q4 11:05 T. Sandell made a 55-yard field goalKicks · 50% expected for him, 7 of 7 from 45+ before +9% OU OU: Turnover
7 Q4 10:33 Pass Interference on Oklahoma, 15 yardsJudgment calls +8% TENN TENN: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 8:07 Tennessee was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +10% OU TENN: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Oklahoma 42% · Tennessee 58%

Final margin
Oklahoma by 6
Luck in points
7.7 for Oklahoma
Luck-adjusted margin
Tennessee by 1.7
Replay with same day's form
Oklahoma 17% · Tennessee 83% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · Oklahoma · Tennessee

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