SEC · 2026 season, in progress

Tennessee Volunteers: luck and expected wins

Tennessee is 3–1 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 2.5 wins. Luck added 0.5: the 29th-luckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–1.

2026, game by game

How often Tennessee wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Furman	W 56–9	100%	0
Week 2	@ Georgia Tech	W 45–24	33%	+67
Week 3	vs Kennesaw State	W 42–9	99%	+1
Week 4	vs Texas	L 17–20	21%	−21

Wk 1 0 vs FUR

Wk 2 +67 @ GT

Wk 3 +1 vs KENN

Wk 4 −21 vs TEX

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	Tennessee win chance
Week 5 · Oct 3	vs Auburn	Tennessee by 9.6	73%
Week 6 · Oct 10	at Arkansas	Tennessee by 13.2	79%
Week 7 · Oct 17	vs Alabama	Alabama by 4.6	39%
Week 8 · Oct 24	at South Carolina	Tennessee by 6.8	66%
Week 10 · Nov 7	vs Kentucky	Tennessee by 10.6	74%
Week 11 · Nov 14	at Texas A&M	Texas A&M by 0.3	49%
Week 12 · Nov 21	vs LSU	LSU by 0.2	49%
Week 13 · Nov 28	at Vanderbilt	Tennessee by 5.2	62%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Tennessee’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
Fumble bounces	+0.06	−3.0
3rd & 4th downs	+0.04	+5.0
Pre-snap flags	−0.07	−7.3

Luckiest wins

Wins Tennessee takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2026 Week 2	@ Georgia Tech	W 45–24	33%	+67
2025 Week 7	vs Arkansas	W 34–31	72%	+28
2025 Week 5	@ Mississippi State	W 41–34	77%	+23
2025 Week 13	@ Florida	W 31–11	88%	+12
2025 Week 1	vs Syracuse	W 45–26	88%	+12

Unluckiest losses

Losses Tennessee would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 10	vs Oklahoma	L 27–33	83%	−83
2025 Week 3	vs Georgia	L 41–44	80%	−80
2025 Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl	vs Illinois	L 28–30	64%	−64
2025 Week 8	@ Alabama	L 20–37	25%	−25
2026 Week 4	vs Texas	L 17–20	21%	−21

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	8–4	9.1	−1.1	2–2	0–1

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Syracuse	W 45–26	88%	+12
Week 2	vs East Tennessee State	W 72–17	100%	0
Week 3	vs Georgia	L 41–44	80%	−80
Week 4	vs UAB	W 56–24	100%	0
Week 5	@ Mississippi State	W 41–34	77%	+23
Week 7	vs Arkansas	W 34–31	72%	+28
Week 8	@ Alabama	L 20–37	25%	−25
Week 9	@ Kentucky	W 56–34	93%	+7
Week 10	vs Oklahoma	L 27–33	83%	−83
Week 12	vs New Mexico State	W 42–9	100%	0
Week 13	@ Florida	W 31–11	88%	+12
Week 14	vs Vanderbilt	L 24–45	5%	−5
Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl	vs Illinois	L 28–30	64%	−64