Week 1 2025 · August 30, 2025
Syracuse vs Tennessee, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?
Tennessee beat Syracuse 45–26, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Tennessee wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Tennessee was an 81% favorite.
Final
 Syracuse Orange | 26 |
|---|---|
 Tennessee Volunteers | 45 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +12 Tennessee about even · −12 Syracuse
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Syracuse wins 1, Tennessee wins 9.
- 1 SYR 21 TENN 16
- 2 SYR 21 TENN 24
- 3 SYR 20 TENN 27
- 4 SYR 17 TENN 27
- 5 SYR 28 TENN 42
- 6 SYR 14 TENN 33
- 7 SYR 23 TENN 45
- 8 SYR 27 TENN 52
- 9 SYR 13 TENN 44
- 10 SYR 3 TENN 42
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Syracuse wins 12% of them, Tennessee 88%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Tennessee by 19.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Syracuse by 17+ | 1.3% |
| Syracuse by 9–16 | 3.1% |
| Syracuse by 1–8 | 7.0% |
| Level after regulation | 2.2% |
| Tennessee by 1–8 | 15.2% |
| Tennessee by 9–16 | 19.0% |
| Tennessee by 17+ | 52.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Syracuse 4 for 30 yards, Tennessee 7 for 65 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:27 | Pass Interference on Syracuse, 15 yards | 0% TENN +0.3 pts |
| Q1 14:08 | False Start on Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SYR +0.7 pts |
| Q1 10:45 | Illegal Shift on Syracuse, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TENN +0.9 pts |
| Q1 7:18 | Offside on Syracuse, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TENN +0.5 pts |
| Q1 3:00 | Delay of Game on Syracuse, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TENN +0.3 pts |
| Q2 14:21 | Pass Interference on Tennessee, 15 yards | +1% SYR +1.7 pts |
| Q2 4:41 | Pass Interference on Tennessee, 15 yards | +1% SYR +1.3 pts |
| Q2 4:36 | Offside on Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SYR +0.5 pts |
| Q3 14:19 | Illegal Block on Tennessee, 15 yards | 0% SYR +0.9 pts |
| Q3 4:00 | False Start on Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SYR +1.0 pts |
| Q4 6:00 | Ineligible Downfield on Tennessee, 5 yards | 0% SYR +0.9 pts |
When it happened
Tennessee’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:40 | Tennessee converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +3% TENN | TENN: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 12:50 | Tennessee was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +1% SYR | TENN: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 10:12 | Syracuse was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +1% TENN | SYR: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 8:15 | Tennessee converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 58% expected | +1% TENN | TENN: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 7:43 | Tennessee converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +3% TENN | TENN: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q1 1:06 | Tennessee fumbled and Syracuse recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +2% SYR | TENN: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q1 0:56 | Syracuse fumbled and Tennessee recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +3% TENN | SYR: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 12:43 | Syracuse converted 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +2% SYR | SYR: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Syracuse 0% · Tennessee 100%
- Final margin
- Tennessee by 19
- Luck in points
- 2.4 for Tennessee
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Tennessee by 16.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Syracuse 12% · Tennessee 88% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · 
Syracuse · 
Tennessee
More from Week 1 2025
- Texas at Ohio State OSU 14–7 · replay 38% for the winner
- California at Oregon State CAL 34–15 · replay 39% for the winner
- Virginia Tech vs South Carolina SC 24–11 · replay 51% for the winner
- LSU at Clemson LSU 17–10 · replay 59% for the winner
- Notre Dame at Miami MIA 27–24 · replay 70% for the winner
- Auburn at Baylor AUB 38–24 · replay 71% for the winner
- Stanford at Hawai'i HAW 23–20 · replay 75% for the winner
- East Texas A&M at SMU SMU 42–13 · replay 79% for the winner
- Kennesaw State at Wake Forest WAKE 10–9 · replay 79% for the winner
- East Carolina at NC State NCSU 24–17 · replay 81% for the winner
- Georgia Tech at Colorado GT 27–20 · replay 88% for the winner
- UTSA at Texas A&M TA&M 42–24 · replay 91% for the winner