Week 1 2025 · August 31, 2025
Notre Dame at Miami, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?
Miami beat Notre Dame 27–24, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10.
Before kickoff Notre Dame was a 56% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:04 left): C. Davis made a 47-yard field goal, worth 11 points of win probability to Miami.
Final
 Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 24 |
|---|---|
 Miami Hurricanes | 27 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +30 Miami lucky · −30 Notre Dame
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Notre Dame wins 3, Miami wins 7.
- 1 ND 21 MIA 0
- 2 ND 16 MIA 7
- 3 ND 6 MIA 3
- 4 ND 17 MIA 20
- 5 ND 21 MIA 26
- 6 ND 16 MIA 24
- 7 ND 21 MIA 33
- 8 ND 7 MIA 21
- 9 ND 6 MIA 27
- 10 ND 7 MIA 34
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Notre Dame wins 30% of them, Miami 70%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Miami by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Notre Dame by 17+ | 5.9% |
| Notre Dame by 9–16 | 8.2% |
| Notre Dame by 1–8 | 15.0% |
| Level after regulation | 4.0% |
| Miami by 1–8 | 21.3% |
| Miami by 9–16 | 20.3% |
| Miami by 17+ | 25.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Davis, 38 yds made · 76% expected
- N. Burnette, 39 yds made · 74% expected
- C. Davis, 47 yds made · 60% expected
Penalties: Notre Dame 5 for 30 yards, Miami 5 for 36 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 11:43 | Holding on Miami, 10 yards | +3% ND +1.3 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Delay of Game on Miami, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% ND +0.8 pts |
| Q3 3:00 | Holding on Notre Dame, 10 yards | +2% MIA +0.9 pts |
| Q3 2:28 | Pass Interference on Miami, 11 yards | +2% ND +0.9 pts |
| Q3 0:10 | Unnecessary Roughness on Miami, 0 yards | +2% ND +0.7 pts |
| Q4 14:31 | Holding on Miami, 10 yards | +5% ND +1.8 pts |
| Q4 6:29 | Intentional Grounding on Notre Dame, 0 yards | 0% MIA 0.0 pts |
| Q4 2:21 | Pass Interference on Notre Dame, 15 yards | +6% MIA +0.7 pts |
| Q4 0:41 | Intentional Grounding on Notre Dame, 0 yards | 0% MIA 0.0 pts |
| Q4 0:05 | False Start on Notre Dame, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MIA +0.2 pts |
When it happened
Miami’s chance of winning
As low as 37% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 0:25 | Miami converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +5% MIA | MIA: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 14:03 | Miami converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +7% MIA | MIA: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 5:21 | Notre Dame converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +6% ND | ND: End of half |
| 4 | Q3 13:45 | Miami converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +7% MIA | MIA: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 0:40 | Notre Dame converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +5% ND | ND: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 14:31 | Holding on Miami, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +5% ND | ND: Turnover |
| 7 | Q4 2:21 | Pass Interference on Notre Dame, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +6% MIA | MIA: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 1:04 | C. Davis made a 47-yard field goalKicks · 60% expected for him, 0 of 0 from 45+ before | +11% MIA | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Notre Dame 33% · Miami 67%
- Final margin
- Miami by 3
- Luck in points
- 0.4 for Miami
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Miami by 2.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Notre Dame 30% · Miami 70% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · 
Notre Dame · 
Miami
More from Week 1 2025
- California at Oregon State CAL 34–15 · replay 39% for the winner
- Virginia Tech vs South Carolina SC 24–11 · replay 51% for the winner
- LSU at Clemson LSU 17–10 · replay 59% for the winner
- Stanford at Hawai'i HAW 23–20 · replay 75% for the winner
- East Texas A&M at SMU SMU 42–13 · replay 79% for the winner
- Kennesaw State at Wake Forest WAKE 10–9 · replay 79% for the winner
- East Carolina at NC State NCSU 24–17 · replay 81% for the winner
- Georgia Tech at Colorado GT 27–20 · replay 88% for the winner
- Syracuse vs Tennessee TENN 45–26 · replay 88% for the winner
- Alabama at Florida State FSU 31–17 · replay 92% for the winner
- Coastal Carolina at Virginia UVA 48–7 · replay 98% for the winner
- Elon at Duke DUKE 45–17 · replay 99% for the winner