Week 1 2025 · August 28, 2025
Elon at Duke, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?
Duke beat Elon 45–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Duke wins 10 of 10.
An off day for Elon: its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Duke it would win 43% of the time; with this day’s form, 1%. The numbers
Before kickoff Elon was a 56% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 13:39 left): Duke converted 3rd & 12, worth 9 points of win probability to Duke.
Final
 Elon Phoenix | 17 |
|---|---|
 Duke Blue Devils | 45 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +1 Duke about even · −1 Elon
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Elon wins 0, Duke wins 10.
- 1 ELON 17 DUKE 24
- 2 ELON 10 DUKE 24
- 3 ELON 7 DUKE 26
- 4 ELON 3 DUKE 26
- 5 ELON 3 DUKE 29
- 6 ELON 3 DUKE 34
- 7 ELON 0 DUKE 34
- 8 ELON 6 DUKE 42
- 9 ELON 0 DUKE 40
- 10 ELON 7 DUKE 56
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Elon
Its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Duke it would win 43% of the time; with this day’s form, 1%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
42 points apart for Elon: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elon offenseEPA per play gained | +0.07 | +0.06 | better by 0.01 |
| Elon defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.52 | +0.05 | worse by 0.47 |
| Duke offenseEPA per play gained | +0.52 | −0.02 | better by 0.54 |
| Duke defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.07 | +0.04 | worse by 0.03 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Elon wins 1% of them, Duke 99%. The line is what actually happened: Duke by 28.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Elon by 17+ | 0.1% |
| Elon by 9–16 | 0.2% |
| Elon by 1–8 | 0.7% |
| Level after regulation | 0.4% |
| Duke by 1–8 | 3.6% |
| Duke by 9–16 | 8.2% |
| Duke by 17+ | 86.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- T. Pelino, 45 yds missed · 64% expected
- T. Pelino, 41 yds made · 71% expected
- L. Barnes, 35 yds made · 79% expected
Penalties: Elon 7 for 47 yards, Duke 3 for 15 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:34 | False Start on Duke, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% ELON +1.7 pts |
| Q1 1:25 | Personal Foul on Elon, 12 yards | +4% DUKE +1.7 pts |
| Q2 9:54 | Delay of Game on Elon, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% DUKE +0.1 pts |
| Q2 3:43 | Delay of Game on Elon, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ELON +0.2 pts |
| Q3 11:58 | False Start on Duke, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% ELON +0.7 pts |
| Q3 5:12 | False Start on Elon, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% DUKE +0.8 pts |
| Q3 4:14 | False Start on Elon, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% DUKE +0.6 pts |
| Q3 2:39 | Offside on Duke, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ELON +0.6 pts |
| Q4 11:01 | Holding on Elon, 10 yards | +3% DUKE +2.5 pts |
| Q4 3:46 | Offside on Elon, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% DUKE +1.1 pts |
When it happened
Duke’s chance of winning
As low as 39% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:47 | T. Pelino missed a 45-yard field goalKicks · 64% expected for him, 12 of 14 from 45+ before | +5% ELON | DUKE: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 4:41 | Duke converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +6% DUKE | DUKE: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 1:25 | Personal Foul on Elon, 12 yardsJudgment calls | +4% DUKE | DUKE: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 0:00 | Elon converted 3rd & 203rd & 4th downs · 14% expected | +8% ELON | ELON: Field goal |
| 5 | Q2 0:49 | Blocked punt by DukeSpecial teams | +5% DUKE | DUKE: End of half |
| 6 | Q3 13:39 | Duke converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +9% DUKE | DUKE: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 3:06 | Elon converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +6% ELON | ELON: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 14:12 | Elon converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +6% ELON | ELON: Turnover on downs |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Elon 0% · Duke 100%
- Final margin
- Duke by 28
- Luck in points
- 6.1 for Elon
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Duke by 34.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Elon 1% · Duke 99% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · 
Elon · 
Duke
More from Week 1 2025
- California at Oregon State CAL 34–15 · replay 39% for the winner
- Virginia Tech vs South Carolina SC 24–11 · replay 51% for the winner
- LSU at Clemson LSU 17–10 · replay 59% for the winner
- Notre Dame at Miami MIA 27–24 · replay 70% for the winner
- Maine at Liberty LIB 28–7 · replay 75% for the winner
- Stanford at Hawai'i HAW 23–20 · replay 75% for the winner
- Bryant at New Mexico State NMSU 19–3 · replay 79% for the winner
- East Texas A&M at SMU SMU 42–13 · replay 79% for the winner
- Kennesaw State at Wake Forest WAKE 10–9 · replay 79% for the winner
- East Carolina at NC State NCSU 24–17 · replay 81% for the winner
- Georgia Tech at Colorado GT 27–20 · replay 88% for the winner
- Syracuse vs Tennessee TENN 45–26 · replay 88% for the winner