Week 1 2025 · August 30, 2025
East Texas A&M at SMU, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?
SMU beat East Texas A&M 42–13, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 8 of 10.
Before kickoff SMU was a 100% favorite.
Final
 East Texas A&M Lions | 13 |
|---|---|
 SMU Mustangs | 42 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +21 SMU about even · −21 East Texas A&M
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. East Texas A&M wins 2, SMU wins 8.
- 1 ETAM 35 SMU 21
- 2 ETAM 20 SMU 17
- 3 ETAM 28 SMU 31
- 4 ETAM 22 SMU 28
- 5 ETAM 13 SMU 21
- 6 ETAM 31 SMU 42
- 7 ETAM 0 SMU 14
- 8 ETAM 10 SMU 28
- 9 ETAM 14 SMU 38
- 10 ETAM 20 SMU 55
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
East Texas A&M wins 21% of them, SMU 79%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: SMU by 29.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| East Texas A&M by 17+ | 2.9% |
| East Texas A&M by 9–16 | 6.2% |
| East Texas A&M by 1–8 | 10.3% |
| Level after regulation | 1.8% |
| SMU by 1–8 | 23.8% |
| SMU by 9–16 | 19.2% |
| SMU by 17+ | 35.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- O. Rigby, 22 yds missed · 93% expected
- O. Rigby, 29 yds made · 86% expected
- O. Rigby, 32 yds made · 83% expected
Penalties: East Texas A&M 9 for 60 yards, SMU 8 for 64 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:07 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on SMU, 15 yards | 0% ETAM +0.2 pts |
| Q1 13:16 | False Start on East Texas A&M, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SMU +1.8 pts |
| Q1 11:49 | Offside on SMU, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ETAM +0.9 pts |
| Q1 7:39 | Holding on SMU, 10 yards | 0% ETAM +1.8 pts |
| Q1 3:59 | Holding on SMU, 10 yards | 0% ETAM +1.3 pts |
| Q1 0:59 | Ineligible Downfield on SMU, 5 yards | 0% ETAM +1.3 pts |
| Q2 14:04 | False Start on East Texas A&M, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SMU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 14:03 | Delay of Game on East Texas A&M, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SMU +0.5 pts |
| Q2 13:01 | Holding on SMU, 0 yards | 0% ETAM 0.0 pts |
| Q2 7:10 | Roughing the Passer on SMU, 14 yards | 0% ETAM +1.6 pts |
| Q2 5:20 | Personal Foul on East Texas A&M, 15 yards | 0% SMU +0.8 pts |
| Q2 4:47 | Offside on East Texas A&M, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SMU +0.5 pts |
| Q3 8:55 | False Start on East Texas A&M, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SMU +1.1 pts |
| Q3 8:26 | Delay of Game on East Texas A&M, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SMU +0.7 pts |
| Q3 2:18 | Holding on East Texas A&M, 10 yards | 0% SMU +2.3 pts |
| Q4 14:12 | False Start on SMU, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ETAM +0.7 pts |
| Q4 11:16 | False Start on East Texas A&M, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SMU +0.7 pts |
When it happened
SMU’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:09 | East Texas A&M converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +0% ETAM | ETAM: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 7:39 | Holding on SMU, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +0% ETAM | ETAM: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 5:32 | Return touchdown by SMUSpecial teams | +0% SMU | SMU: Turnover |
| 4 | Q1 1:13 | O. Rigby missed a 22-yard field goalKicks · 93% expected for him | +0% SMU | ETAM: Opp touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 0:59 | Ineligible Downfield on SMU, 5 yardsJudgment calls | +0% ETAM | ETAM: Opp touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 12:23 | East Texas A&M converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +0% ETAM | ETAM: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 11:02 | East Texas A&M converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 23% expected | +0% ETAM | ETAM: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 9:32 | Return touchdown by SMUSpecial teams | +0% SMU | SMU: Turnover on downs |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
East Texas A&M 0% · SMU 100%
- Final margin
- SMU by 29
- Luck in points
- 3.4 for SMU
- Luck-adjusted margin
- SMU by 25.6
- Replay with same day's form
- East Texas A&M 21% · SMU 79% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · 
East Texas A&M · 
SMU
More from Week 1 2025
- California at Oregon State CAL 34–15 · replay 39% for the winner
- Virginia Tech vs South Carolina SC 24–11 · replay 51% for the winner
- LSU at Clemson LSU 17–10 · replay 59% for the winner
- Notre Dame at Miami MIA 27–24 · replay 70% for the winner
- Stanford at Hawai'i HAW 23–20 · replay 75% for the winner
- Kennesaw State at Wake Forest WAKE 10–9 · replay 79% for the winner
- East Carolina at NC State NCSU 24–17 · replay 81% for the winner
- Nicholls at Troy TROY 38–20 · replay 85% for the winner
- Georgia Tech at Colorado GT 27–20 · replay 88% for the winner
- Syracuse vs Tennessee TENN 45–26 · replay 88% for the winner
- SE Louisiana at Louisiana Tech LT 24–0 · replay 91% for the winner
- Alabama at Florida State FSU 31–17 · replay 92% for the winner