Week 1 2025 · August 28, 2025
East Carolina at NC State, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?
NC State beat East Carolina 24–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, NC State wins 8 of 10.
Before kickoff NC State was a 79% favorite.
Final
 East Carolina Pirates | 17 |
|---|---|
 NC State Wolfpack | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +19 NC State about even · −19 East Carolina
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. East Carolina wins 2, NC State wins 8.
- 1 ECU 28 NCSU 13
- 2 ECU 28 NCSU 24
- 3 ECU 21 NCSU 23
- 4 ECU 27 NCSU 34
- 5 ECU 3 NCSU 14
- 6 ECU 17 NCSU 31
- 7 ECU 7 NCSU 24
- 8 ECU 10 NCSU 31
- 9 ECU 7 NCSU 34
- 10 ECU 0 NCSU 35
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
East Carolina wins 19% of them, NC State 81%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: NC State by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| East Carolina by 17+ | 3.3% |
| East Carolina by 9–16 | 5.3% |
| East Carolina by 1–8 | 9.8% |
| Level after regulation | 2.3% |
| NC State by 1–8 | 21.8% |
| NC State by 9–16 | 18.7% |
| NC State by 17+ | 38.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- N. Konieczynski, 29 yds made · 87% expected
- N. Mazzie, 53 yds missed · 49% expected
- N. Konieczynski, 40 yds missed · 73% expected
- N. Mazzie, 34 yds made · 81% expected
- N. Konieczynski, 46 yds missed · 60% expected
Penalties: East Carolina 10 for 86 yards, NC State 7 for 98 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:44 | Holding on NC State, 10 yards | +1% ECU +0.6 pts |
| Q1 9:18 | Personal Foul on NC State, 15 yards | +3% ECU +2.0 pts |
| Q1 3:29 | Holding on East Carolina, 10 yards | +2% NCSU +1.5 pts |
| Q2 10:06 | Holding on East Carolina, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +1% NCSU +2.4 pts |
| Q2 7:10 | Roughing the Passer on NC State, 50 yards | +2% ECU +3.8 pts |
| Q2 0:06 | Holding on East Carolina, 10 yards | 0% NCSU +0.8 pts |
| Q3 13:02 | False Start on NC State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ECU +0.7 pts |
| Q3 13:02 | False Start on NC State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ECU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 9:20 | False Start on East Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NCSU +0.9 pts |
| Q3 8:39 | False Start on East Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NCSU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 4:39 | Roughing the Passer on East Carolina, 15 yards | 0% NCSU +0.7 pts |
| Q3 3:48 | Pass Interference on East Carolina, 11 yards | +2% NCSU +2.6 pts |
| Q3 3:32 | Holding on East Carolina, 10 yards | +1% NCSU +1.6 pts |
| Q4 13:59 | Holding on NC State, 10 yards | +1% ECU +1.1 pts |
| Q4 9:39 | False Start on East Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NCSU +0.5 pts |
| Q4 3:15 | Ineligible Downfield on East Carolina, 5 yards | +4% NCSU +0.9 pts |
| Q4 0:32 | False Start on NC State, 3 yards · pre-snap | 0% ECU 0.0 pts |
When it happened
NC State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 9:18 | Personal Foul on NC State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +3% ECU | ECU: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 6:16 | NC State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +3% NCSU | NCSU: Punt |
| 3 | Q3 9:57 | East Carolina converted 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +4% ECU | ECU: Punt |
| 4 | Q4 12:23 | N. Konieczynski missed a 40-yard field goalKicks · 73% expected for him | +3% ECU | NCSU: Missed field goal |
| 5 | Q4 11:15 | East Carolina converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 21% expected | +4% ECU | ECU: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 5:41 | N. Konieczynski missed a 46-yard field goalKicks · 60% expected for him, 0 of 0 from 45+ before | +4% ECU | NCSU: End of game |
| 7 | Q4 3:15 | Ineligible Downfield on East Carolina, 5 yardsJudgment calls | +4% NCSU | NCSU: End of game |
| 8 | Q4 0:37 | East Carolina was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected | +5% NCSU | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
East Carolina 16% · NC State 84%
- Final margin
- NC State by 7
- Luck in points
- 0.7 for NC State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- NC State by 6.3
- Replay with same day's form
- East Carolina 19% · NC State 81% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · 
East Carolina · 
NC State
More from Week 1 2025
- Tarleton State at Army TAR 30–27 · replay 13% for the winner
- California at Oregon State CAL 34–15 · replay 39% for the winner
- Virginia Tech vs South Carolina SC 24–11 · replay 51% for the winner
- LSU at Clemson LSU 17–10 · replay 59% for the winner
- Northwestern at Tulane TULN 23–3 · replay 63% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Maryland MD 39–7 · replay 68% for the winner
- Notre Dame at Miami MIA 27–24 · replay 70% for the winner
- Rice at Louisiana RICE 14–12 · replay 75% for the winner
- Stanford at Hawai'i HAW 23–20 · replay 75% for the winner
- East Texas A&M at SMU SMU 42–13 · replay 79% for the winner
- Kennesaw State at Wake Forest WAKE 10–9 · replay 79% for the winner
- Boise State at South Florida USF 34–7 · replay 87% for the winner