luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2025 · August 28, 2025

Boise State at South Florida, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?

South Florida beat Boise State 34–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, South Florida wins 9 of 10.

An off day for Boise State: its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against South Florida it would win 62% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%. The numbers

Before kickoff Boise State was a 71% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 8:18 left): South Florida converted 4th & 6, worth 12 points of win probability to South Florida.

Final

Boise State Broncos 7
South Florida Bulls 34

August 28, 2025 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Boise State −8.5

Luck index +13 South Florida about even · −13 Boise State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Boise State wins 1, South Florida wins 9.

  1. 1 BOIS 15 USF 7
  2. 2 BOIS 7 USF 10
  3. 3 BOIS 14 USF 21
  4. 4 BOIS 7 USF 17
  5. 5 BOIS 6 USF 20
  6. 6 BOIS 7 USF 23
  7. 7 BOIS 10 USF 29
  8. 8 BOIS 20 USF 42
  9. 9 BOIS 7 USF 33
  10. 10 BOIS 3 USF 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for Boise State

Its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against South Florida it would win 62% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%.

49 points apart for Boise State: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Boise State offenseEPA per play gained −0.10 +0.14 worse by 0.24
Boise State defenseEPA per play allowed +0.06 +0.04 worse by 0.02
South Florida offenseEPA per play gained +0.06 +0.04 better by 0.02
South Florida defenseEPA per play allowed −0.10 +0.09 better by 0.18

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Boise State wins 13% of them, South Florida 87%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: South Florida by 27.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Boise State by 17+0.7%
Boise State by 9–163.9%
Boise State by 1–88.0%
Level after regulation0.9%
South Florida by 1–818.8%
South Florida by 9–1619.8%
South Florida by 17+47.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +11.2 points to South Florida: the final margin was South Florida by 27, without the luck South Florida by 15.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • N. Gramatica, 52 yds made · 51% expected
  • N. Gramatica, 33 yds made · 84% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Boise State 8 for 57 yards, South Florida 7 for 56 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 2:33 Pass Interference on South Florida, 10 yards +2% BOIS +1.1 pts
Q1 1:30 False Start on Boise State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% USF +0.4 pts
Q2 14:07 Holding on South Florida, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% BOIS +1.8 pts
Q2 13:34 Holding on South Florida, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% BOIS +3.4 pts
Q2 8:50 Unnecessary Roughness on Boise State, 15 yards +3% USF +1.6 pts
Q2 7:12 False Start on South Florida, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BOIS +0.5 pts
Q2 6:34 Offside on South Florida, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BOIS +0.7 pts
Q2 4:33 Roughing the Passer on South Florida, 11 yards +3% BOIS +1.4 pts
Q2 3:39 False Start on Boise State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% USF +0.4 pts
Q2 0:25 False Start on Boise State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% USF +0.2 pts
Q2 0:20 Delay of Game on Boise State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% USF +0.1 pts
Q3 13:17 False Start on South Florida, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BOIS +0.8 pts
Q3 10:28 Delay of Game on Boise State, 1 yard · pre-snap +1% USF +0.1 pts
Q3 2:21 Pass Interference on Boise State, 6 yards +4% USF +1.3 pts
Q4 13:26 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Boise State, 15 yards +1% USF +1.9 pts

When it happened

South Florida’s chance of winning

As low as 15% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while South Florida was ahead in it, below while Boise State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:45 South Florida was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +7% BOIS USF: Field goal
2 Q2 13:34 Holding on South Florida, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% BOIS BOIS: Punt
3 Q2 11:44 Boise State converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +5% BOIS BOIS: Punt
4 Q2 6:34 South Florida converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedOffside on South Florida, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +6% USF USF: Punt
5 Q2 3:10 Boise State fumbled and South Florida recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% USF BOIS: Punt
6 Q3 8:18 South Florida converted 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +12% USF USF: Touchdown
7 Q3 2:51 Boise State was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +6% USF BOIS: Turnover on downs
8 Q3 2:47 Boise State was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +9% USF BOIS: Turnover on downs

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Boise State 2% · South Florida 98%

Final margin
South Florida by 27
Luck in points
11.2 for South Florida
Luck-adjusted margin
South Florida by 15.8
Replay with same day's form
Boise State 13% · South Florida 87% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · Boise State · South Florida

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