Week 1 2025 · August 30, 2025
Rice at Louisiana, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?
Rice beat Louisiana 14–12, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10.
An off day for Louisiana: its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Rice it would win 75% of the time; with this day’s form, 25%. The numbers
Before kickoff Louisiana was an 83% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:56 left): Rice was stopped on 4th & 1, worth 26 points of win probability to Louisiana.
Final
 Rice Owls | 14 |
|---|---|
 Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns | 12 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +25 Rice lucky · −25 Louisiana
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Rice wins 7, Louisiana wins 3.
- 1 RICE 44 UL 14
- 2 RICE 27 UL 6
- 3 RICE 34 UL 17
- 4 RICE 16 UL 3
- 5 RICE 16 UL 6
- 6 RICE 17 UL 10
- 7 RICE 13 UL 10
- 8 RICE 14 UL 16
- 9 RICE 31 UL 41
- 10 RICE 2 UL 17
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Louisiana
Its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Rice it would win 75% of the time; with this day’s form, 25%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
50 points apart for Louisiana: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rice offenseEPA per play gained | −0.09 | +0.04 | worse by 0.13 |
| Rice defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.10 | +0.04 | better by 0.14 |
| Louisiana offenseEPA per play gained | −0.10 | +0.15 | worse by 0.25 |
| Louisiana defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.09 | +0.13 | better by 0.22 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Rice wins 75% of them, Louisiana 25%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rice by 2.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Rice by 17+ | 28.3% |
| Rice by 9–16 | 21.8% |
| Rice by 1–8 | 20.9% |
| Level after regulation | 6.0% |
| Louisiana by 1–8 | 12.7% |
| Louisiana by 9–16 | 6.8% |
| Louisiana by 17+ | 3.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- T. Sterner, 47 yds made · 59% expected
- T. Sterner, 51 yds made · 53% expected
Penalties: Rice 5 for 55 yards, Louisiana 5 for 48 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:43 | Illegal Substitution on Rice, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UL +0.4 pts |
| Q1 10:18 | Holding on Louisiana, 10 yards | +2% RICE +1.7 pts |
| Q1 7:28 | Intentional Grounding on Louisiana, 12 yards | +2% RICE +1.7 pts |
| Q2 10:52 | Unnecessary Roughness on Rice, 15 yards | +2% UL +1.2 pts |
| Q2 10:05 | Pass Interference on Rice, 15 yards | +3% UL +1.5 pts |
| Q2 4:08 | Illegal Block on Louisiana, 10 yards | 0% RICE 0.0 pts |
| Q2 0:31 | Offside on Rice, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UL +0.1 pts |
| Q4 3:28 | Face Mask on Louisiana, 6 yards | +6% RICE +1.1 pts |
| Q4 1:38 | Holding on Louisiana, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +15% RICE +1.3 pts |
| Q4 1:17 | Pass Interference on Rice, 15 yards | +8% UL +1.0 pts |
When it happened
Louisiana’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 88%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q3 9:43 | Rice converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +8% RICE | RICE: Punt |
| 2 | Q3 6:04 | Louisiana converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +8% UL | UL: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q4 7:10 | Louisiana was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected | +12% RICE | UL: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q4 6:30 | Louisiana was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected | +19% RICE | UL: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q4 1:56 | Rice was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected | +26% UL | RICE: End of game |
| 6 | Q4 1:38 | Holding on Louisiana, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +15% RICE | RICE: End of game |
| 7 | Q4 1:17 | Pass Interference on Rice, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +8% UL | UL: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 0:57 | Louisiana was stopped on 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +12% RICE | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Rice 93% · Louisiana 7%
- Final margin
- Rice by 2
- Luck in points
- 6.6 for Louisiana
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Rice by 8.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Rice 75% · Louisiana 25% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · 
Rice · 
Louisiana
More from Week 1 2025
- Tarleton State at Army TAR 30–27 · replay 13% for the winner
- Old Dominion at Indiana IU 27–14 · replay 61% for the winner
- Northwestern at Tulane TULN 23–3 · replay 63% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Maryland MD 39–7 · replay 68% for the winner
- East Carolina at NC State NCSU 24–17 · replay 81% for the winner
- Nicholls at Troy TROY 38–20 · replay 85% for the winner
- Boise State at South Florida USF 34–7 · replay 87% for the winner
- Alabama State at UAB UAB 52–42 · replay 89% for the winner
- UTSA at Texas A&M TA&M 42–24 · replay 91% for the winner
- Temple at Massachusetts TEM 42–10 · replay 91% for the winner
- Saint Francis at UL Monroe ULM 29–0 · replay 93% for the winner
- Morgan State at South Alabama USA 38–21 · replay 94% for the winner