American · 2026 season, in progress

Rice Owls: luck and expected wins

Rice is 1–3 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 2.0 wins. Luck cost 1.0: the 10th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–1.

2026, game by game

How often Rice wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Houston Christian	W 31–3	98%	+2
Week 2	@ Notre Dame	L 0–52	0%	0
Week 3	vs Western Michigan	L 21–28	64%	−64
Week 4	@ Fresno State	L 24–38	41%	−41

Wk 1 +2 vs HCU

Wk 2 0 @ ND

Wk 3 −64 vs WMU

Wk 4 −41 @ FRES

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	Rice win chance
Week 5 · Oct 3	vs UTSA	UTSA by 13.7	19%
Week 6 · Oct 10	at East Carolina	East Carolina by 14.7	18%
Week 7 · Oct 17	vs Tulsa	Tulsa by 3.9	40%
Week 8 · Oct 24	at Florida Atlantic	Florida Atlantic by 8.9	29%
Week 10 · Nov 7	at North Texas	North Texas by 23.9	8%
Week 11 · Nov 14	vs Tulane	Tulane by 9.3	29%
Week 12 · Nov 19	at Temple	Temple by 12.4	23%
Week 13 · Nov 28	vs Army	Army by 13.5	21%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Rice’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
Fumble bounces	−0.05	−10.6
Kicks	−0.14	−8.5
3rd & 4th downs	−0.17	+2.5

Luckiest wins

Wins Rice takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 11	vs UAB	W 24–17	35%	+65
2025 Week 9	vs UConn	W 37–34	66%	+34
2025 Week 1	@ Louisiana	W 14–12	75%	+25
2025 Week 4	@ Charlotte	W 28–17	87%	+13
2025 Week 3	vs Prairie View A&M	W 38–17	96%	+4

Unluckiest losses

Losses Rice would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2026 Week 3	vs Western Michigan	L 21–28	64%	−64
2025 Week 6	vs Florida Atlantic	L 21–27	62%	−62
2026 Week 4	@ Fresno State	L 24–38	41%	−41
2025 Week 2	vs Houston	L 9–35	15%	−15
2026 Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl	vs Texas State	L 10–41	2%	−2

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	5–7	4.4	+0.6	3–2	0–1

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Louisiana	W 14–12	75%	+25
Week 2	vs Houston	L 9–35	15%	−15
Week 3	vs Prairie View A&M	W 38–17	96%	+4
Week 4	@ Charlotte	W 28–17	87%	+13
Week 5	@ Navy	L 13–21	1%	−1
Week 6	vs Florida Atlantic	L 21–27	62%	−62
Week 7	@ UTSA	L 13–61	1%	−1
Week 9	vs UConn	W 37–34	66%	+34
Week 10	vs Memphis	L 14–38	0%	0
Week 11	vs UAB	W 24–17	35%	+65
Week 13	vs North Texas	L 24–56	0%	0
Week 14	@ South Florida	L 3–52	0%	0
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl	vs Texas State	L 10–41	2%	−2