luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 4 2025 · September 18, 2025

Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 38 of the 45 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.

Rice at Charlotte, Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?

Rice beat Charlotte 28–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Rice wins 9 of 10.

Before kickoff Rice was a 54% favorite.

Final

Rice Owls 28
Charlotte 49ers 17

September 18, 2025 · Jerry Richardson Stadium · Closing line: Rice −1.5

Luck index +13 Rice about even · −13 Charlotte

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Rice wins 9, Charlotte wins 1.

  1. 1 RICE 45 CLT 7
  2. 2 RICE 41 CLT 10
  3. 3 RICE 26 CLT 0
  4. 4 RICE 35 CLT 14
  5. 5 RICE 17 CLT 0
  6. 6 RICE 38 CLT 24
  7. 7 RICE 24 CLT 14
  8. 8 RICE 24 CLT 17
  9. 9 RICE 17 CLT 14
  10. 10 RICE 13 CLT 20

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Rice wins 87% of them, Charlotte 13%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rice by 11.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Rice by 17+46.3%
Rice by 9–1619.4%
Rice by 1–820.7%
Level after regulation1.4%
Charlotte by 1–88.1%
Charlotte by 9–163.0%
Charlotte by 17+1.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +9.8 points to Charlotte: the final margin was Rice by 11, without the luck Rice by 20.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • L. Boyd, 29 yds made · 87% expected
  • L. Boyd, 25 yds made · 91% expected
  • L. Boyd, 40 yds made · 72% expected
  • L. Boyd, 42 yds missed · 69% expected
  • E. Gota, 55 yds missed · 44% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Rice 7 for 82 yards, Charlotte 5 for 43 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:06 Holding on Rice, 10 yards +4% CLT +1.8 pts
Q1 12:00 Pass Interference on Rice, 12 yards +1% CLT +0.7 pts
Q1 10:15 Holding on Charlotte, 10 yards +2% RICE +1.2 pts
Q1 0:58 Personal Foul on Rice, 15 yards +2% CLT +1.1 pts
Q2 9:13 Pass Interference on Rice, 15 yards +2% CLT +1.0 pts
Q3 10:53 Pass Interference on Charlotte, 13 yards +3% RICE +1.8 pts
Q3 8:28 Holding on Rice, 10 yards +1% CLT +1.2 pts
Q3 6:49 False Start on Charlotte, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% RICE +0.7 pts
Q3 3:19 False Start on Rice, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CLT +1.4 pts
Q4 7:40 Pass Interference on Rice, 15 yards 0% CLT +2.5 pts
Q4 1:46 Holding on Charlotte, 10 yards 0% RICE +0.6 pts
Q4 1:37 False Start on Charlotte, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% RICE +0.3 pts

When it happened

Charlotte’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 56%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Charlotte was ahead in it, below while Rice was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:06 Holding on Rice, 10 yardsJudgment calls +4% CLT CLT: Field goal
2 Q1 10:55 Charlotte converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +5% CLT CLT: Field goal
3 Q1 3:11 Charlotte was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +4% RICE CLT: Punt
4 Q2 11:42 Charlotte converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +6% CLT CLT: Field goal
5 Q2 9:50 Charlotte fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +4% CLT CLT: Field goal
6 Q2 9:42 Charlotte converted 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 18% expected +7% CLT CLT: Field goal
7 Q3 12:23 Rice converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +5% RICE RICE: Touchdown
8 Q3 0:15 Charlotte converted 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +8% CLT CLT: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Rice 100% · Charlotte 0%

Final margin
Rice by 11
Luck in points
9.8 for Charlotte
Luck-adjusted margin
Rice by 20.8
Replay with same day's form
Rice 87% · Charlotte 13% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here. Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 38 of the 45 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2025 games · Rice · Charlotte

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