luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

2025 college football season · September 18, 2025–September 20, 2025

Week 4 2025: upsets, and who deserved to win

14 upsets in Week 4 2025. The biggest: Syracuse beat Clemson 34–21 as 13% underdogs, and got lucky. 9 of 62 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest heist: Memphis beat Arkansas 32–31 in a game it wins 30% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

Week 4 2025 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 8 of 14 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form (our postgame win expectancy).

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Syracuse 34–21 @ Clemson 13% 34% Lucky
Coastal Carolina 38–20 @ South Alabama 17% 74% Deserved
San Diego State 34–0 vs California 18% 92% Deserved
Western Michigan 14–13 vs Toledo 19% 71% Deserved
Maryland 27–10 @ Wisconsin 25% 80% Deserved
Tulsa 19–12 @ Oklahoma State 26% 44% Coin flip
Memphis 32–31 vs Arkansas 33% 30% Lucky
Troy 21–17 @ Buffalo 36% 30% Lucky
UL Monroe 31–25 @ UTEP 36% 84% Deserved
Kennesaw State 28–21 vs Arkansas State 39% 88% Deserved
Delaware 38–16 @ Florida International 40% 85% Deserved
Texas Tech 34–10 @ Utah 41% 87% Deserved
Arizona State 27–24 @ Baylor 42% 39% Lucky
Eastern Michigan 34–31 vs Louisiana 44% 42% Coin flip

Every game, luck first

The games luck decided most come first. The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 4 luck ranking

Every FBS team’s luck index: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Fresno State W 23–21 @ Hawai'i 24% +76
2 Troy W 21–17 @ Buffalo 30% +70
3 Memphis W 32–31 vs Arkansas 30% +70
4 Syracuse W 34–21 @ Clemson 34% +66
5 Duke W 45–33 vs NC State 35% +65
6 UConn W 31–25 vs Ball State 37% +63
7 Michigan W 30–27 @ Nebraska 39% +61
8 Arizona State W 27–24 @ Baylor 39% +61
9 UTSA W 17–16 @ Colorado State 40% +60
10 Eastern Michigan W 34–31 vs Louisiana 42% +58
11 Tulsa W 19–12 @ Oklahoma State 44% +56
12 Louisiana Tech W 30–20 vs Southern Miss 45% +55
13 Marshall W 42–28 @ Middle Tennessee 47% +53
14 UNLV W 41–38 @ Miami (OH) 50% +50
15 North Texas W 45–38 @ Army 50% +50
16 Oklahoma W 24–17 vs Auburn 60% +40
17 BYU W 34–13 @ East Carolina 66% +34
18 Western Michigan W 14–13 vs Toledo 71% +29
19 Western Kentucky W 31–16 vs Nevada 73% +27
20 TCU W 35–24 vs SMU 74% +26
21 Coastal Carolina W 38–20 @ South Alabama 74% +26
22 Boise State W 49–37 @ Air Force 75% +25
23 Iowa W 38–28 @ Rutgers 80% +20
24 Washington W 59–24 @ Washington State 80% +20
25 Maryland W 27–10 @ Wisconsin 80% +20
26 UL Monroe W 31–25 @ UTEP 84% +16
27 Delaware W 38–16 @ Florida International 85% +15
28 Texas Tech W 34–10 @ Utah 87% +13
29 Rice W 28–17 @ Charlotte 87% +13
30 Mississippi State W 38–10 vs Northern Illinois 88% +12
31 Kennesaw State W 28–21 vs Arkansas State 88% +12
32 USC W 45–31 vs Michigan State 89% +11
33 UCF W 34–9 vs North Carolina 91% +9
34 Colorado W 37–20 vs Wyoming 91% +9
35 San José State W 31–28 vs Idaho 91% +9
36 San Diego State W 34–0 vs California 92% +8
37 Missouri W 29–20 vs South Carolina 92% +8
38 Missouri State W 42–10 vs UT Martin 92% +8
39 Ohio W 52–35 vs Gardner-Webb 95% +5
40 Texas State W 35–3 vs Nicholls 96% +4
41 Utah State W 48–7 vs McNeese 97% +3
42 James Madison W 31–13 @ Liberty 98% +2
43 Georgia Southern W 45–17 vs Maine 98% +2
44 Miami W 26–7 vs Florida 98% +2
45 Ole Miss W 45–10 vs Tulane 98% +2
46 Louisville W 40–17 vs Bowling Green 99% +1
47 Virginia W 48–20 vs Stanford 99% +1
48 LSU W 56–10 vs SE Louisiana 99% +1
49 Jacksonville State W 45–10 vs Murray State 99% +1
50 Kansas W 41–10 vs West Virginia 99% +1
51 Akron W 51–7 vs Duquesne 100% 0
52 South Florida W 63–14 vs South Carolina State 100% 0
53 Georgia Tech W 45–24 vs Temple 100% 0
54 Oregon W 41–7 vs Oregon State 100% 0
55 Virginia Tech W 38–6 vs Wofford 100% 0
56 Tennessee W 56–24 vs UAB 100% 0
57 Central Michigan W 49–10 vs Wagner 100% 0
58 Notre Dame W 56–30 vs Purdue 100% 0
59 Florida State W 66–10 vs Kent State 100% 0
60 Vanderbilt W 70–21 vs Georgia State 100% 0
61 Indiana W 63–10 vs Illinois 100% 0
62 Texas W 55–0 vs Sam Houston 100% 0
63 UAB L 24–56 @ Tennessee 0% 0
64 Purdue L 30–56 @ Notre Dame 0% 0
65 Kent State L 10–66 @ Florida State 0% 0
66 Georgia State L 21–70 @ Vanderbilt 0% 0
67 Illinois L 10–63 @ Indiana 0% 0
68 Sam Houston L 0–55 @ Texas 0% 0
69 Oregon State L 7–41 @ Oregon 0% 0
70 Temple L 24–45 @ Georgia Tech 0% 0
71 West Virginia L 10–41 @ Kansas 1% −1
72 Stanford L 20–48 @ Virginia 1% −1
73 Bowling Green L 17–40 @ Louisville 1% −1
74 Tulane L 10–45 @ Ole Miss 2% −2
75 Florida L 7–26 @ Miami 2% −2
76 Liberty L 13–31 vs James Madison 2% −2
77 South Carolina L 20–29 @ Missouri 8% −8
78 California L 0–34 @ San Diego State 8% −8
79 Wyoming L 20–37 @ Colorado 9% −9
80 North Carolina L 9–34 @ UCF 9% −9
81 Michigan State L 31–45 @ USC 11% −11
82 Arkansas State L 21–28 @ Kennesaw State 12% −12
83 Northern Illinois L 10–38 @ Mississippi State 12% −12
84 Charlotte L 17–28 vs Rice 13% −13
85 Utah L 10–34 vs Texas Tech 13% −13
86 Florida International L 16–38 vs Delaware 15% −15
87 UTEP L 25–31 vs UL Monroe 16% −16
88 Wisconsin L 10–27 vs Maryland 20% −20
89 Washington State L 24–59 vs Washington 20% −20
90 Rutgers L 28–38 vs Iowa 20% −20
91 Air Force L 37–49 vs Boise State 25% −25
92 South Alabama L 20–38 vs Coastal Carolina 26% −26
93 SMU L 24–35 @ TCU 26% −26
94 Nevada L 16–31 @ Western Kentucky 27% −27
95 Toledo L 13–14 @ Western Michigan 29% −29
96 East Carolina L 13–34 vs BYU 34% −34
97 Auburn L 17–24 @ Oklahoma 40% −40
98 Army L 38–45 vs North Texas 50% −50
99 Miami (OH) L 38–41 vs UNLV 50% −50
100 Middle Tennessee L 28–42 vs Marshall 53% −53
101 Southern Miss L 20–30 @ Louisiana Tech 55% −55
102 Oklahoma State L 12–19 vs Tulsa 56% −56
103 Louisiana L 31–34 @ Eastern Michigan 58% −58
104 Colorado State L 16–17 vs UTSA 60% −60
105 Baylor L 24–27 vs Arizona State 61% −61
106 Nebraska L 27–30 vs Michigan 61% −61
107 Ball State L 25–31 @ UConn 63% −63
108 NC State L 33–45 @ Duke 65% −65
109 Clemson L 21–34 vs Syracuse 66% −66
110 Arkansas L 31–32 @ Memphis 70% −70
111 Buffalo L 17–21 vs Troy 70% −70
112 Hawai'i L 21–23 vs Fresno State 76% −76