Week 4 2025 · September 20, 2025
McNeese at Utah State, Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?
Utah State beat McNeese 48–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Utah State wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Utah State was a 94% favorite.
Final
 McNeese Cowboys | 7 |
|---|---|
 Utah State Aggies | 48 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +3 Utah State about even · −3 McNeese
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. McNeese wins 0, Utah State wins 10.
- 1 MCN 24 USU 29
- 2 MCN 12 USU 24
- 3 MCN 18 USU 34
- 4 MCN 16 USU 36
- 5 MCN 14 USU 37
- 6 MCN 10 USU 37
- 7 MCN 14 USU 45
- 8 MCN 7 USU 42
- 9 MCN 14 USU 55
- 10 MCN 6 USU 56
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
McNeese wins 3% of them, Utah State 97%. The line is what actually happened: Utah State by 41.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| McNeese by 17+ | 0.1% |
| McNeese by 9–16 | 0.6% |
| McNeese by 1–8 | 1.5% |
| Level after regulation | 0.4% |
| Utah State by 1–8 | 4.9% |
| Utah State by 9–16 | 8.5% |
| Utah State by 17+ | 84.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: McNeese 2 for 17 yards, Utah State 6 for 55 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:43 | Holding on Utah State, 10 yards | +1% MCN +1.3 pts |
| Q1 6:05 | Illegal Shift on Utah State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MCN +0.3 pts |
| Q1 0:32 | Holding on Utah State, 10 yards | 0% MCN +0.6 pts |
| Q2 13:38 | Offside on Utah State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MCN +0.3 pts |
| Q3 12:30 | Holding on Utah State, 10 yards | 0% MCN +0.6 pts |
| Q3 8:00 | Personal Foul on McNeese, 5 yards | 0% USU +0.9 pts |
| Q3 3:34 | Pass Interference on McNeese, 12 yards | 0% USU +0.7 pts |
| Q3 2:53 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Utah State, 15 yards | 0% MCN +1.6 pts |
When it happened
Utah State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:14 | Utah State converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +1% USU | USU: Turnover |
| 2 | Q1 10:43 | Holding on Utah State, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +1% MCN | MCN: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 8:46 | Utah State fumbled and McNeese recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +1% MCN | USU: End of half |
| 4 | Q1 8:02 | McNeese was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +1% USU | MCN: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 7:37 | Utah State converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +1% USU | USU: End of half |
| 6 | Q1 6:05 | Utah State was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 66% expectedIllegal Shift on Utah State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +1% MCN | USU: End of half |
| 7 | Q1 5:53 | Utah State converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expectedUtah State’s two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +1% USU | USU: End of half |
| 8 | Q1 4:40 | McNeese was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +0% USU | MCN: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
McNeese 0% · Utah State 100%
- Final margin
- Utah State by 41
- Luck in points
- 1.3 for McNeese
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Utah State by 42.3
- Replay with same day's form
- McNeese 3% · Utah State 97% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2025 games · 
McNeese · 
Utah State
More from Week 4 2025
- Fresno State at Hawai'i FRES 23–21 · replay 24% for the winner
- UTSA at Colorado State UTSA 17–16 · replay 40% for the winner
- UNLV at Miami (OH) UNLV 41–38 · replay 50% for the winner
- Nevada at Western Kentucky WKU 31–16 · replay 73% for the winner
- Boise State at Air Force BOIS 49–37 · replay 75% for the winner
- Wyoming at Colorado COLO 37–20 · replay 91% for the winner
- Idaho at San José State SJSU 31–28 · replay 91% for the winner
- California at San Diego State SDSU 34–0 · replay 92% for the winner
- Nicholls at Texas State TXST 35–3 · replay 96% for the winner
- SE Louisiana at LSU LSU 56–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Troy at Buffalo TROY 21–17 · replay 30% for the winner
- Arkansas at Memphis MEM 32–31 · replay 30% for the winner