Pac-12 · 2026 season, in progress
Utah State Aggies: luck and expected wins
Utah State is 1–3 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 2.2 wins. Luck cost 1.2: the 6th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–1.
2026, game by game
How often Utah State wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Idaho State | L 17–29 | 84% | −84 |
| Week 2 | @ Washington | L 14–16 | 59% | −59 |
| Week 3 | @ Utah | L 0–33 | 0% | 0 |
| Week 4 | vs Troy | W 21–10 | 75% | +25 |
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.
| Week | Game | Our pick | Utah State win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 · Oct 3 | at Boise State |  Boise State by 18.8 | 12% |
| Week 6 · Oct 9 | vs Washington State |  Utah State by 0.5 | 51% |
| Week 8 · Oct 24 | at Texas State |  Texas State by 9.1 | 29% |
| Week 9 · Oct 31 | vs Colorado State | Utah State by 3.7 | 59% |
| Week 10 · Nov 7 | vs Fresno State |  Fresno State by 1.8 | 46% |
| Week 11 · Nov 14 | at San Diego State |  San Diego State by 4.8 | 39% |
| Week 12 · Nov 21 | at Oregon State |  Oregon State by 8.5 | 31% |
Where the luck came from, 2026
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Utah State’s favor.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.29 | +7.3 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.05 | −1.4 |
| Kicks | −0.06 | −9.1 |
| Pre-snap flags | −0.28 | −13.3 |
Luckiest wins
Wins Utah State takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 13 | @ Fresno State | W 28–17 | 30% | +70 |
| 2025 Week 8 | vs San José State | W 30–25 | 71% | +29 |
| 2026 Week 4 | vs Troy | W 21–10 | 75% | +25 |
| 2025 Week 1 | vs UTEP | W 28–16 | 90% | +10 |
| 2025 Week 4 | vs McNeese | W 48–7 | 97% | +3 |
Unluckiest losses
Losses Utah State would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Week 1 | vs Idaho State | L 17–29 | 84% | −84 |
| 2026 Week 2 | @ Washington | L 14–16 | 59% | −59 |
| 2025 Week 14 | vs Boise State | L 24–25 | 57% | −57 |
| 2025 Week 12 | @ UNLV | L 26–29 | 32% | −32 |
| 2025 Week 7 | @ Hawai'i | L 26–44 | 25% | −25 |
Earlier seasons
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Postseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 6–6 | 6.3 | −0.3 | 1–2 | 0–1 |
2025, game by game
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs UTEP | W 28–16 | 90% | +10 |
| Week 2 | @ Texas A&M | L 22–44 | 0% | 0 |
| Week 3 | vs Air Force | W 49–30 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 4 | vs McNeese | W 48–7 | 97% | +3 |
| Week 5 | @ Vanderbilt | L 35–55 | 0% | 0 |
| Week 7 | @ Hawai'i | L 26–44 | 25% | −25 |
| Week 8 | vs San José State | W 30–25 | 71% | +29 |
| Week 9 | @ New Mexico | L 14–33 | 23% | −23 |
| Week 11 | vs Nevada | W 51–14 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 12 | @ UNLV | L 26–29 | 32% | −32 |
| Week 13 | @ Fresno State | W 28–17 | 30% | +70 |
| Week 14 | vs Boise State | L 24–25 | 57% | −57 |
| Famous Idaho Potato Bowl | vs Washington State | L 21–34 | 4% | −4 |
More
- 2026 college football luck rankings
- Pac-12 teams by luck
- Pac-12: Boise State,
Colorado State, Fresno State, Oregon State, San Diego State, Texas State, 
Washington State
How many wins does Utah State have in 2026?
1–3 so far. Replayed with the way both teams played, its games were worth 2.2 wins.
Was Utah State lucky or unlucky in 2026?
Unlucky so far: −1.2 wins of luck, the 6th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams.
What was Utah State’s luckiest season?
2025: 6–6 from play worth 6.3 wins, −0.3 of luck. The unluckiest: 2026, 1–3 from play worth 2.2 (−1.2).