Pac-12 · 2026 season, in progress
Fresno State Bulldogs: luck and expected wins
Fresno State is 3–1 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 2.1 wins. Luck added 0.9: the 7th-luckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–0.
2026, game by game
How often Fresno State wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ USC | L 0–39 | 1% | −1 |
| Week 2 | vs Sacramento State | W 49–3 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 3 | @ San José State | W 26–10 | 48% | +52 |
| Week 4 | vs Rice | W 38–24 | 59% | +41 |
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.
| Week | Game | Our pick | Fresno State win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 · Oct 3 | at Washington State |  Washington State by 0.9 | 48% |
| Week 6 · Oct 10 | vs Boise State |  Boise State by 7.5 | 32% |
| Week 7 · Oct 17 | at San Diego State |  Fresno State by 0.2 | 50% |
| Week 9 · Oct 31 | vs Oregon State | Fresno State by 2.7 | 57% |
| Week 10 · Nov 7 | at Utah State | Fresno State by 1.8 | 54% |
| Week 11 · Nov 14 | at Texas State |  Texas State by 4.2 | 40% |
| Week 12 · Nov 21 | vs Colorado State | Fresno State by 8.7 | 70% |
Where the luck came from, 2026
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Fresno State’s favor.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Pre-snap flags | +0.15 | +4.7 |
| Kicks | +0.06 | +6.4 |
| Fumble bounces | +0.04 | +3.0 |
Luckiest wins
Wins Fresno State takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 4 | @ Hawai'i | W 23–21 | 24% | +76 |
| 2025 Week 2 | @ Oregon State | W 36–27 | 46% | +54 |
| 2026 Week 3 | @ San José State | W 26–10 | 48% | +52 |
| 2026 Week 4 | vs Rice | W 38–24 | 59% | +41 |
| 2025 Week 6 | vs Nevada | W 20–17 | 73% | +27 |
Unluckiest losses
Losses Fresno State would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 13 | vs Utah State | L 17–28 | 70% | −70 |
| 2025 Week 7 | @ Colorado State | L 21–49 | 19% | −19 |
| 2026 Week 1 | @ USC | L 0–39 | 1% | −1 |
| 2025 Week 9 | vs San Diego State | L 0–23 | 0% | 0 |
| 2025 Week 1 | @ Kansas | L 7–31 | 0% | 0 |
Earlier seasons
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Postseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 8–4 | 7.1 | +0.9 | 2–0 | 1–0 |
2025, game by game
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Kansas | L 7–31 | 0% | 0 |
| Week 1 | vs Georgia Southern | W 42–14 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 2 | @ Oregon State | W 36–27 | 46% | +54 |
| Week 3 | vs Southern | W 56–7 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 4 | @ Hawai'i | W 23–21 | 24% | +76 |
| Week 6 | vs Nevada | W 20–17 | 73% | +27 |
| Week 7 | @ Colorado State | L 21–49 | 19% | −19 |
| Week 9 | vs San Diego State | L 0–23 | 0% | 0 |
| Week 10 | @ Boise State | W 30–7 | 96% | +4 |
| Week 12 | vs Wyoming | W 24–3 | 96% | +4 |
| Week 13 | vs Utah State | L 17–28 | 70% | −70 |
| Week 14 | @ San José State | W 41–14 | 84% | +16 |
| Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl | vs Miami (OH) | W 18–3 | 76% | +24 |
More
- 2026 college football luck rankings
- Pac-12 teams by luck
- Pac-12: Boise State,
Colorado State, 
Oregon State, 
San Diego State, Texas State, 
Utah State, Washington State
How many wins does Fresno State have in 2026?
3–1 so far. Replayed with the way both teams played, its games were worth 2.1 wins.
Was Fresno State lucky or unlucky in 2026?
Lucky so far: +0.9 wins of luck, the 7th-luckiest of 138 FBS teams.
What was Fresno State’s luckiest season?
2026: 3–1 from play worth 2.1 wins, +0.9 of luck. The unluckiest: 2025, 8–4 from play worth 7.1 (+0.9).