luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 9 2025 · October 25, 2025

San Diego State at Fresno State, Week 9 2025: who deserved to win?

San Diego State beat Fresno State 23–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, San Diego State wins 10 of 10.

An off day for Fresno State: its offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against San Diego State it would win 33% of the time; with this day’s form, 0%. The numbers

Before kickoff San Diego State was a 58% favorite.

Final

San Diego State Aztecs 23
Fresno State Bulldogs 0

October 25, 2025 · Valley Children's Stadium · Closing line: San Diego State −3

Luck index 0 San Diego State about even · 0 Fresno State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. San Diego State wins 10, Fresno State wins 0.

  1. 1 SDSU 55 FRES 0
  2. 2 SDSU 52 FRES 3
  3. 3 SDSU 44 FRES 0
  4. 4 SDSU 40 FRES 0
  5. 5 SDSU 37 FRES 0
  6. 6 SDSU 37 FRES 3
  7. 7 SDSU 37 FRES 7
  8. 8 SDSU 27 FRES 0
  9. 9 SDSU 24 FRES 3
  10. 10 SDSU 21 FRES 7

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for Fresno State

Its offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against San Diego State it would win 33% of the time; with this day’s form, 0%.

33 points apart for Fresno State: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
San Diego State offenseEPA per play gained +0.20 +0.03 better by 0.17
San Diego State defenseEPA per play allowed −0.25 +0.05 better by 0.30
Fresno State offenseEPA per play gained −0.25 +0.09 worse by 0.34
Fresno State defenseEPA per play allowed +0.20 +0.07 worse by 0.13

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

San Diego State wins 100% of them, Fresno State 0%. The line is what actually happened: San Diego State by 23.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
San Diego State by 17+96.7%
San Diego State by 9–162.2%
San Diego State by 1–80.9%
Level after regulation0.1%
Fresno State by 1–80.1%
Fresno State by 9–160.0%
Fresno State by 17+0.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.4 points to San Diego State: the final margin was San Diego State by 23, without the luck San Diego State by 20.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • G. Plascencia, 42 yds made · 73% expected
  • G. Plascencia, 50 yds made · 59% expected
  • G. Plascencia, 27 yds made · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: San Diego State 6 for 44 yards, Fresno State 6 for 50 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:18 Illegal Formation on San Diego State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% FRES +0.3 pts
Q1 12:20 Holding on Fresno State, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% SDSU +2.2 pts
Q1 5:42 Holding on Fresno State, 10 yards +3% SDSU +1.3 pts
Q1 1:04 Illegal Substitution on Fresno State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SDSU +0.4 pts
Q2 5:35 Pass Interference on San Diego State, 9 yards +3% FRES +1.7 pts
Q2 1:38 False Start on San Diego State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% FRES +0.4 pts
Q2 1:28 False Start on Fresno State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SDSU +0.2 pts
Q2 0:49 Roughing the Passer on San Diego State, 15 yards 0% FRES +0.6 pts
Q3 14:34 Personal Foul on Fresno State, 15 yards +5% SDSU +3.1 pts
Q3 14:34 Delay of Game on San Diego State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% FRES +0.6 pts
Q3 13:36 False Start on Fresno State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SDSU +0.6 pts
Q3 0:43 Ineligible Downfield on San Diego State, 5 yards +1% FRES +0.7 pts

When it happened

Fresno State’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Fresno State was ahead in it, below while San Diego State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:41 Fresno State converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +5% FRES FRES: Punt
2 Q1 12:20 Holding on Fresno State, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +5% SDSU SDSU: Touchdown
3 Q1 10:45 Fresno State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +5% FRES FRES: Punt
4 Q1 5:42 Holding on Fresno State, 10 yardsJudgment calls +3% SDSU SDSU: Touchdown
5 Q1 3:01 Fresno State was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +3% SDSU FRES: Punt
6 Q2 5:35 Pass Interference on San Diego State, 9 yardsJudgment calls +3% FRES FRES: Turnover
7 Q3 14:34 Personal Foul on Fresno State, 15 yardsJudgment callsDelay of Game on San Diego State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +4% SDSU SDSU: Turnover
8 Q3 4:57 San Diego State fumbled and Fresno State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +4% FRES SDSU: Field goal

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

San Diego State 100% · Fresno State 0%

Final margin
San Diego State by 23
Luck in points
2.4 for San Diego State
Luck-adjusted margin
San Diego State by 20.6
Replay with same day's form
San Diego State 100% · Fresno State 0% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2025 games · San Diego State · Fresno State

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