luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 9 2025 · October 25, 2025

Utah State at New Mexico, Week 9 2025: who deserved to win?

New Mexico beat Utah State 33–14, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 8 of 10.

Before kickoff New Mexico was a 58% favorite.

Final

Utah State Aggies 14
New Mexico Lobos 33

October 25, 2025 · University Stadium (NM) · Closing line: New Mexico −3

Luck index +23 New Mexico about even · −23 Utah State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Utah State wins 2, New Mexico wins 8.

  1. 1 USU 31 UNM 17
  2. 2 USU 24 UNM 20
  3. 3 USU 7 UNM 10
  4. 4 USU 14 UNM 19
  5. 5 USU 17 UNM 24
  6. 6 USU 0 UNM 10
  7. 7 USU 21 UNM 35
  8. 8 USU 14 UNM 31
  9. 9 USU 14 UNM 35
  10. 10 USU 0 UNM 29

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Utah State wins 23% of them, New Mexico 77%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: New Mexico by 19.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Utah State by 17+3.0%
Utah State by 9–165.9%
Utah State by 1–814.0%
Level after regulation3.8%
New Mexico by 1–822.8%
New Mexico by 9–1621.6%
New Mexico by 17+28.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.0 points to Utah State: the final margin was New Mexico by 19, without the luck New Mexico by 20.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Utah State 7 for 46 yards, New Mexico 7 for 65 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:49 Holding on New Mexico, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% USU +2.3 pts
Q1 6:46 False Start on Utah State, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% UNM +1.0 pts
Q1 6:00 Pass Interference on New Mexico, 15 yards +4% USU +2.0 pts
Q1 5:51 Holding on Utah State, 10 yards +3% UNM +1.3 pts
Q2 4:52 Offside on Utah State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UNM +0.3 pts
Q2 2:06 Face Mask on New Mexico, 15 yards +1% USU +1.5 pts
Q2 1:09 Offside on New Mexico, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% USU +0.3 pts
Q3 13:34 Illegal Shift on Utah State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UNM +0.9 pts
Q3 12:49 Holding on Utah State, 10 yards, wiping out the play +2% UNM +2.3 pts
Q3 8:53 Holding on New Mexico, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% USU +1.2 pts
Q3 4:13 False Start on Utah State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UNM +0.9 pts
Q4 14:58 Holding on Utah State, 6 yards +1% UNM +2.1 pts
Q4 13:14 Offside on New Mexico, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% USU +2.0 pts
Q4 0:26 Illegal Formation on New Mexico, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% USU +0.3 pts

When it happened

New Mexico’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while New Mexico was ahead in it, below while Utah State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:58 New Mexico was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +3% USU UNM: Punt
2 Q1 13:19 New Mexico converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +4% UNM UNM: Punt
3 Q1 10:50 New Mexico was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 67% expected +3% USU UNM: Punt
4 Q1 10:49 Holding on New Mexico, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +5% USU USU: Turnover
5 Q1 9:14 Return touchdown by New MexicoSpecial teams +6% UNM UNM: Touchdown
6 Q1 6:00 Pass Interference on New Mexico, 15 yardsJudgment calls +4% USU USU: Turnover
7 Q1 5:51 Holding on Utah State, 10 yardsJudgment calls +3% UNM UNM: Touchdown
8 Q2 9:52 New Mexico was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +2% USU UNM: Field goal

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Utah State 0% · New Mexico 100%

Final margin
New Mexico by 19
Luck in points
1.1 for Utah State
Luck-adjusted margin
New Mexico by 20.1
Replay with same day's form
Utah State 23% · New Mexico 77% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2025 games · Utah State · New Mexico

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