luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 9 2025 · October 25, 2025

Virginia at North Carolina, Week 9 2025: who deserved to win?

Virginia beat North Carolina 17–16, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, North Carolina wins 9 of 10. Luck ran its way: fumble bounces alone were worth 16 points of win probability to Virginia.

Virginia won on an off day: its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against North Carolina it would win 68% of the time; with this day’s form, 15%. The numbers

Before kickoff Virginia was a 77% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 11:04 left): Pass Interference on North Carolina, 11 yards, wiping out the play, worth 16 points of win probability to Virginia.

Final (OT)

Virginia Cavaliers 17
North Carolina Tar Heels 16

October 25, 2025 · Kenan Stadium · Closing line: Virginia −11.5

Luck index +85 Virginia very lucky · −85 North Carolina

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Virginia wins 1, North Carolina wins 9.

  1. 1 UVA 24 UNC 17
  2. 2 UVA 17 UNC 20
  3. 3 UVA 14 UNC 20
  4. 4 UVA 7 UNC 16
  5. 5 UVA 10 UNC 21
  6. 6 UVA 17 UNC 31
  7. 7 UVA 9 UNC 27
  8. 8 UVA 7 UNC 28
  9. 9 UVA 0 UNC 26
  10. 10 UVA 0 UNC 32

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

Virginia won on an off day

Its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against North Carolina it would win 68% of the time; with this day’s form, 15%.

54 points apart for Virginia: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Virginia offenseEPA per play gained −0.25 +0.07 worse by 0.32
Virginia defenseEPA per play allowed −0.04 +0.13 better by 0.17
North Carolina offenseEPA per play gained −0.04 +0.07 worse by 0.11
North Carolina defenseEPA per play allowed −0.25 +0.09 better by 0.33

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Virginia wins 15% of them, North Carolina 85%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Virginia by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Virginia by 17+1.1%
Virginia by 9–164.2%
Virginia by 1–89.3%
Level after regulation0.6%
North Carolina by 1–819.9%
North Carolina by 9–1620.4%
North Carolina by 17+44.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.8 points to Virginia: the final margin was Virginia by 1, without the luck North Carolina by 3.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • W. Bettridge, 34 yds made · 83% expected
  • R. Verhoff, 34 yds made · 83% expected
  • R. Verhoff, 50 yds missed · 55% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Virginia 5 for 65 yards, North Carolina 6 for 56 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:17 Holding on North Carolina, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% UVA +2.6 pts
Q1 6:24 Illegal Substitution on North Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UVA +0.8 pts
Q1 2:21 Illegal Formation on Virginia, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UNC +0.7 pts
Q1 0:04 Roughing the Passer on Virginia, 15 yards 0% UNC +1.6 pts
Q2 14:53 Roughing the Passer on Virginia, 15 yards +3% UNC +1.7 pts
Q2 13:48 Unnecessary Roughness on Virginia, 15 yards +4% UNC +2.1 pts
Q3 11:04 Pass Interference on North Carolina, 11 yards, wiping out the play +16% UVA +6.5 pts
Q4 3:31 False Start on North Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% UVA +0.6 pts
Q4 2:21 Roughing the Passer on North Carolina, 15 yards +8% UVA +0.9 pts
Q4 0:31 Holding on North Carolina, 10 yards +3% UVA +0.4 pts
Q4 0:20 Face Mask on Virginia, 15 yards +15% UNC +1.6 pts

When it happened

North Carolina’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 62%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while North Carolina was ahead in it, below while Virginia was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 11:04 Pass Interference on North Carolina, 11 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +16% UVA UVA: Turnover on downs
2 Q3 5:07 North Carolina converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +5% UNC UNC: Turnover
3 Q3 1:58 Virginia converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +8% UVA UVA: Punt
4 Q4 9:40 Virginia was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +6% UNC UVA: Punt
5 Q4 7:32 North Carolina converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +8% UNC UNC: Punt
6 Q4 2:21 Roughing the Passer on North Carolina, 15 yardsJudgment calls +7% UVA UVA: Punt
7 Q4 1:06 Virginia was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +6% UNC UVA: Punt
8 Q4 0:20 Face Mask on Virginia, 15 yardsJudgment calls +15% UNC UNC: Turnover

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Virginia 29% · North Carolina 71%

Final margin
Virginia by 1
Luck in points
4.8 for Virginia
Luck-adjusted margin
North Carolina by 3.8
Replay with same day's form
Virginia 15% · North Carolina 85% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2025 games · Virginia · North Carolina

More from Week 9 2025

Every week 9 game, 2025