Week 9 2025 · October 25, 2025
Syracuse at Georgia Tech, Week 9 2025: who deserved to win?
Georgia Tech beat Syracuse 41–16, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Georgia Tech wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Georgia Tech was an 87% favorite.
Final
 Syracuse Orange | 16 |
|---|---|
 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | 41 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +3 Georgia Tech about even · −3 Syracuse
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Syracuse wins 0, Georgia Tech wins 10.
- 1 SYR 38 GT 42
- 2 SYR 24 GT 35
- 3 SYR 13 GT 28
- 4 SYR 17 GT 38
- 5 SYR 24 GT 49
- 6 SYR 28 GT 56
- 7 SYR 7 GT 38
- 8 SYR 14 GT 49
- 9 SYR 9 GT 49
- 10 SYR 7 GT 56
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Syracuse wins 3% of them, Georgia Tech 97%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Georgia Tech by 25.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Syracuse by 17+ | 0.3% |
| Syracuse by 9–16 | 0.4% |
| Syracuse by 1–8 | 1.7% |
| Level after regulation | 0.9% |
| Georgia Tech by 1–8 | 5.9% |
| Georgia Tech by 9–16 | 8.9% |
| Georgia Tech by 17+ | 81.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- T. Woody, 27 yds made · 90% expected
- A. Birr, 20 yds made · 97% expected
- A. Birr, 22 yds made · 96% expected
Penalties: Syracuse 7 for 55 yards, Georgia Tech 4 for 40 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:41 | False Start on Syracuse, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% GT +1.2 pts |
| Q1 11:53 | Offside on Syracuse, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% GT +0.7 pts |
| Q1 4:09 | False Start on Georgia Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SYR +0.9 pts |
| Q1 3:37 | Holding on Georgia Tech, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +1% SYR +2.2 pts |
| Q2 9:47 | Holding on Syracuse, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +2% GT +1.6 pts |
| Q2 7:56 | Personal Foul on Syracuse, 15 yards | +1% GT +1.6 pts |
| Q2 0:12 | Personal Foul on Georgia Tech, 15 yards | 0% SYR +0.9 pts |
| Q3 5:57 | Holding on Syracuse, 10 yards | 0% GT +0.6 pts |
| Q3 5:25 | False Start on Syracuse, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% GT +0.7 pts |
| Q3 1:23 | False Start on Syracuse, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% GT +0.5 pts |
| Q4 6:14 | Holding on Georgia Tech, 10 yards | 0% SYR +1.2 pts |
When it happened
Georgia Tech’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:22 | Georgia Tech fumbled and Syracuse recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +2% SYR | GT: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 10:59 | T. Woody made a 27-yard field goalKicks · 90% expected for him | +2% GT | SYR: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 9:04 | Georgia Tech converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +2% GT | GT: Field goal |
| 4 | Q1 6:19 | Georgia Tech was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +2% SYR | GT: Field goal |
| 5 | Q1 1:09 | Syracuse was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +2% GT | SYR: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 14:31 | Georgia Tech converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +2% GT | GT: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 12:26 | Georgia Tech was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected | +2% SYR | GT: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 12:23 | Georgia Tech converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 23% expected | +2% GT | GT: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Syracuse 2% · Georgia Tech 98%
- Final margin
- Georgia Tech by 25
- Luck in points
- 10.7 for Georgia Tech
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Georgia Tech by 14.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Syracuse 3% · Georgia Tech 97% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2025 games · 
Syracuse · 
Georgia Tech
More from Week 9 2025
- Virginia at North Carolina UVA 17–16 · replay 15% for the winner
- SMU at Wake Forest WAKE 13–12 · replay 70% for the winner
- NC State at Pittsburgh PITT 53–34 · replay 78% for the winner
- Boston College at Louisville LOU 38–24 · replay 88% for the winner
- California at Virginia Tech VT 42–34 · replay 97% for the winner
- Stanford at Miami MIA 42–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- BYU at Iowa State BYU 41–27 · replay 26% for the winner
- South Florida at Memphis MEM 34–31 · replay 28% for the winner
- Akron at Buffalo AKR 24–16 · replay 30% for the winner
- Auburn at Arkansas AUB 33–24 · replay 30% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Kent State KENT 24–21 · replay 38% for the winner
- Alabama at South Carolina ALA 29–22 · replay 38% for the winner