Week 9 2025 · October 25, 2025
Stanford at Miami, Week 9 2025: who deserved to win?
Miami beat Stanford 42–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Miami wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Miami was a 97% favorite.
Final
 Stanford Cardinal | 7 |
|---|---|
 Miami Hurricanes | 42 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Miami about even · 0 Stanford
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Stanford wins 0, Miami wins 10.
- 1 STAN 7 MIA 17
- 2 STAN 10 MIA 25
- 3 STAN 0 MIA 20
- 4 STAN 7 MIA 30
- 5 STAN 3 MIA 30
- 6 STAN 10 MIA 38
- 7 STAN 6 MIA 38
- 8 STAN 6 MIA 41
- 9 STAN 0 MIA 40
- 10 STAN 0 MIA 48
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Stanford wins 0% of them, Miami 100%. The line is what actually happened: Miami by 35.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Stanford by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Stanford by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Stanford by 1–8 | 0.3% |
| Level after regulation | 0.2% |
| Miami by 1–8 | 3.5% |
| Miami by 9–16 | 7.1% |
| Miami by 17+ | 88.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Stanford 2 for 10 yards, Miami 5 for 30 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:30 | False Start on Miami, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% STAN +0.3 pts |
| Q1 9:58 | Offside on Miami, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% STAN +0.6 pts |
| Q2 7:23 | False Start on Miami, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% STAN +0.8 pts |
| Q3 14:56 | Offside on Miami, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% STAN +1.0 pts |
| Q3 13:35 | Intentional Grounding on Stanford, 0 yards | 0% MIA 0.0 pts |
| Q3 4:55 | Pass Interference on Miami, 10 yards | +2% STAN +3.4 pts |
| Q4 0:16 | Illegal Block on Stanford, 10 yards | +1% MIA +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Miami’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 1:04 | Stanford converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +2% STAN | STAN: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 12:35 | Miami was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +2% STAN | MIA: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q2 11:57 | Miami converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +3% MIA | MIA: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q2 10:42 | Miami was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +2% STAN | MIA: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q2 8:49 | Stanford was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +2% MIA | STAN: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 14:04 | Stanford converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +2% STAN | STAN: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 6:15 | Miami was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 80% expected | +2% STAN | MIA: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 4:55 | Pass Interference on Miami, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +2% STAN | STAN: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Stanford 0% · Miami 100%
- Final margin
- Miami by 35
- Luck in points
- 6.1 for Stanford
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Miami by 41.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Stanford 0% · Miami 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2025 games · 
Stanford · 
Miami
More from Week 9 2025
- Virginia at North Carolina UVA 17–16 · replay 15% for the winner
- SMU at Wake Forest WAKE 13–12 · replay 70% for the winner
- NC State at Pittsburgh PITT 53–34 · replay 78% for the winner
- Boston College at Louisville LOU 38–24 · replay 88% for the winner
- California at Virginia Tech VT 42–34 · replay 97% for the winner
- Syracuse at Georgia Tech GT 41–16 · replay 97% for the winner
- BYU at Iowa State BYU 41–27 · replay 26% for the winner
- South Florida at Memphis MEM 34–31 · replay 28% for the winner
- Akron at Buffalo AKR 24–16 · replay 30% for the winner
- Auburn at Arkansas AUB 33–24 · replay 30% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Kent State KENT 24–21 · replay 38% for the winner
- Alabama at South Carolina ALA 29–22 · replay 38% for the winner