ACC · 2026 season, in progress
Miami Hurricanes: luck and expected wins
Miami is 4–0 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 3.8 wins. Luck added 0.2: the 64th-luckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–0.
2026, game by game
How often Miami wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Stanford | W 45–6 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 2 | vs Florida A&M | W 77–7 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 3 | @ Wake Forest | W 33–20 | 83% | +17 |
| Week 4 | vs Central Michigan | W 52–3 | 100% | 0 |
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.
| Week | Game | Our pick | Miami win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 · Oct 3 | at Clemson |  Miami by 15.8 | 84% |
| Week 7 · Oct 17 | vs Florida State | Miami by 22.1 | 91% |
| Week 8 · Oct 24 | vs Pittsburgh | Miami by 13.5 | 79% |
| Week 9 · Oct 31 | at North Carolina | Miami by 19.0 | 87% |
| Week 10 · Nov 7 | at Notre Dame |  Notre Dame by 8.5 | 30% |
| Week 11 · Nov 14 | vs Duke | Miami by 14.9 | 81% |
| Week 12 · Nov 21 | vs Virginia Tech | Miami by 22.7 | 91% |
| Week 13 · Nov 28 | vs Boston College | Miami by 34.9 | 98% |
Where the luck came from, 2026
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Miami’s favor.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Kicks | +0.02 | −1.6 |
Luckiest wins
Wins Miami takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 CFP quarterfinal, Cotton Bowl | vs Ohio State | W 24–14 | 30% | +70 |
| 2025 CFP first round | @ Texas A&M | W 10–3 | 42% | +58 |
| 2025 Week 6 | @ Florida State | W 28–22 | 60% | +40 |
| 2025 Week 13 | @ Virginia Tech | W 34–17 | 61% | +39 |
| 2026 CFP semifinal, Fiesta Bowl | vs Ole Miss | W 31–27 | 63% | +37 |
Unluckiest losses
Losses Miami would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 CFP National Championship | vs Indiana | L 21–27 | 78% | −78 |
| 2025 Week 8 | vs Louisville | L 21–24 | 76% | −76 |
| 2025 Week 10 | @ SMU | L 20–26 | 68% | −68 |
Earlier seasons
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Postseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 10–2 | 10.3 | −0.3 | 2–2 | 3–1 |
2025, game by game
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Notre Dame | W 27–24 | 70% | +30 |
| Week 2 | vs Bethune-Cookman | W 45–3 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 3 | vs South Florida | W 49–12 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 4 | vs Florida | W 26–7 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 6 | @ Florida State | W 28–22 | 60% | +40 |
| Week 8 | vs Louisville | L 21–24 | 76% | −76 |
| Week 9 | vs Stanford | W 42–7 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 10 | @ SMU | L 20–26 | 68% | −68 |
| Week 11 | vs Syracuse | W 38–10 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 12 | vs NC State | W 41–7 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 13 | @ Virginia Tech | W 34–17 | 61% | +39 |
| Week 14 | @ Pittsburgh | W 38–7 | 98% | +2 |
| CFP first round | @ Texas A&M | W 10–3 | 42% | +58 |
| CFP quarterfinal, Cotton Bowl | vs Ohio State | W 24–14 | 30% | +70 |
| CFP semifinal, Fiesta Bowl | vs Ole Miss | W 31–27 | 63% | +37 |
| CFP National Championship | vs Indiana | L 21–27 | 78% | −78 |
More
- 2026 college football luck rankings
- ACC teams by luck
- ACC:
Boston College, 
California, 
Clemson, 
Duke, 
Florida State, 
Georgia Tech, 
Louisville, 
NC State, 
North Carolina, 
Pittsburgh, 
SMU, 
Stanford, 
Syracuse, 
Virginia, 
Virginia Tech, 
Wake Forest
How many wins does Miami have in 2026?
4–0 so far. Replayed with the way both teams played, its games were worth 3.8 wins.
Was Miami lucky or unlucky in 2026?
Neither: about as lucky as the average team so far: +0.2 wins of luck, the 64th-luckiest of 138 FBS teams.
What was Miami’s luckiest season?
2026: 4–0 from play worth 3.8 wins, +0.2 of luck. The unluckiest: 2025, 10–2 from play worth 10.3 (−0.3).