ACC · 2026 season, in progress

Florida State Seminoles: luck and expected wins

Florida State is 2–2 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 2.1 wins. Luck cost 0.1: the 53rd-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–1.

2026, game by game

How often Florida State wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs New Mexico State	W 34–17	82%	+18
Week 1	vs SMU	L 24–27	3%	−3
Week 3	@ Alabama	L 36–50	23%	−23
Week 4	vs Central Arkansas	W 34–7	100%	0

Wk 1 +18 vs NMSU

Wk 1 −3 vs SMU

Wk 3 −23 @ ALA

Wk 4 0 vs CARK

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	Florida State win chance
Week 5 · Oct 3	vs Virginia	Virginia by 4.4	39%
Week 6 · Oct 9	at Louisville	Louisville by 8.9	29%
Week 7 · Oct 17	at Miami	Miami by 22.1	9%
Week 9 · Oct 31	vs Clemson	Florida State by 3.2	58%
Week 10 · Nov 7	at Boston College	Florida State by 9.7	72%
Week 11 · Nov 13	at Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh by 11.7	24%
Week 12 · Nov 21	vs NC State	Florida State by 2.7	56%
Week 13 · Nov 27	vs Florida	Florida by 11.6	25%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Florida State’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
Pre-snap flags	+0.14	+2.4
Fumble bounces	+0.13	−0.2
Kicks	+0.06	+2.8
3rd & 4th downs	−0.27	−5.1

Luckiest wins

Wins Florida State takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2026 Week 1	vs New Mexico State	W 34–17	82%	+18
2025 Week 12	vs Virginia Tech	W 34–14	90%	+10
2025 Week 1	vs Alabama	W 31–17	92%	+8
2025 Week 10	vs Wake Forest	W 42–7	99%	+1
2025 Week 2	vs East Texas A&M	W 77–3	100%	0

Unluckiest losses

Losses Florida State would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 13	@ NC State	L 11–21	82%	−82
2025 Week 8	@ Stanford	L 13–20	46%	−46
2025 Week 6	vs Miami	L 22–28	40%	−40
2025 Week 7	vs Pittsburgh	L 31–34	34%	−34
2025 Week 11	@ Clemson	L 10–24	33%	−33

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	5–7	7.6	−2.6	0–4	–

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Alabama	W 31–17	92%	+8
Week 2	vs East Texas A&M	W 77–3	100%	0
Week 4	vs Kent State	W 66–10	100%	0
Week 5	@ Virginia	L 38–46	22%	−22
Week 6	vs Miami	L 22–28	40%	−40
Week 7	vs Pittsburgh	L 31–34	34%	−34
Week 8	@ Stanford	L 13–20	46%	−46
Week 10	vs Wake Forest	W 42–7	99%	+1
Week 11	@ Clemson	L 10–24	33%	−33
Week 12	vs Virginia Tech	W 34–14	90%	+10
Week 13	@ NC State	L 11–21	82%	−82
Week 14	@ Florida	L 21–40	22%	−22