luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 4 2026 · September 26, 2026

Central Arkansas at Florida State, Week 4 2026: who deserved to win?

Florida State beat Central Arkansas 34–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Florida State wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Florida State was a 100% favorite.

Final

Central Arkansas Bears 7
Florida State Seminoles 34

September 26, 2026 · Doak Campbell Stadium · Closing line: Florida State −45.5

Luck index 0 Florida State about even · 0 Central Arkansas

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Central Arkansas wins 0, Florida State wins 10.

  1. 1 CARK 28 FSU 42
  2. 2 CARK 17 FSU 41
  3. 3 CARK 10 FSU 38
  4. 4 CARK 17 FSU 48
  5. 5 CARK 10 FSU 44
  6. 6 CARK 0 FSU 37
  7. 7 CARK 13 FSU 52
  8. 8 CARK 3 FSU 45
  9. 9 CARK 9 FSU 56
  10. 10 CARK 3 FSU 56

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Central Arkansas wins 0% of them, Florida State 100%. The line is what actually happened: Florida State by 27.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Central Arkansas by 17+0.0%
Central Arkansas by 9–160.0%
Central Arkansas by 1–80.1%
Level after regulation0.1%
Florida State by 1–80.7%
Florida State by 9–162.8%
Florida State by 17+96.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

No play in this game swung win probability by luck.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.2 points to Florida State: the final margin was Florida State by 27, without the luck Florida State by 25.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • G. Panikowski, 23 yds made · 93% expected
  • G. Panikowski, 31 yds made · 87% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Central Arkansas 10 for 90 yards, Florida State 10 for 115 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:44 Pass Interference on Central Arkansas, 15 yards 0% FSU +0.8 pts
Q1 10:48 False Start on Central Arkansas, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% FSU +1.3 pts
Q1 10:34 False Start on Central Arkansas, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% FSU +0.9 pts
Q1 7:22 False Start on Florida State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CARK +0.7 pts
Q1 5:18 Roughing the Kicker on Florida State, 15 yards 0% CARK +3.4 pts
Q1 4:28 Holding on Florida State, 10 yards 0% CARK +0.7 pts
Q1 3:43 Holding on Central Arkansas, 10 yards 0% FSU +2.1 pts
Q2 14:34 Holding on Florida State, 10 yards 0% CARK +1.8 pts
Q2 1:57 Face Mask on Florida State, 15 yards 0% CARK +1.7 pts
Q2 1:49 Pass Interference on Florida State, 15 yards 0% CARK +2.1 pts
Q3 11:50 Unnecessary Roughness on Florida State, 15 yards 0% CARK +1.6 pts
Q3 10:41 Holding on Central Arkansas, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% FSU +2.9 pts
Q3 7:27 Offside on Central Arkansas, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% FSU +0.3 pts
Q3 6:38 Offside on Central Arkansas, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% FSU +0.1 pts
Q3 3:46 Holding on Central Arkansas, 10 yards 0% FSU +0.7 pts
Q3 3:36 Holding on Florida State, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% CARK +1.5 pts
Q3 3:20 Pass Interference on Central Arkansas, 15 yards 0% FSU +0.2 pts
Q4 13:07 Holding on Central Arkansas, 10 yards 0% FSU +1.5 pts
Q4 3:56 Offside on Florida State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CARK +1.8 pts
Q4 3:53 Pass Interference on Florida State, 15 yards 0% CARK +1.1 pts

When it happened

Florida State’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Florida State was ahead in it, below while Central Arkansas was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:44 Pass Interference on Central Arkansas, 15 yardsJudgment calls +0% FSU FSU: Touchdown
2 Q1 9:26 Central Arkansas was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +0% FSU CARK: Punt
3 Q1 5:18 Roughing the Kicker on Florida State, 15 yardsJudgment calls +0% CARK CARK: Punt
4 Q1 3:43 Holding on Central Arkansas, 10 yardsJudgment calls +0% FSU FSU: Field goal
5 Q2 14:34 Holding on Florida State, 10 yardsJudgment calls +0% CARK CARK: Punt
6 Q3 11:50 Unnecessary Roughness on Florida State, 15 yardsJudgment calls +0% CARK CARK: Punt
7 Q3 10:41 Holding on Central Arkansas, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +0% FSU FSU: Touchdown
8 Q3 9:29 Central Arkansas was stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +0% FSU CARK: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Central Arkansas 0% · Florida State 100%

Final margin
Florida State by 27
Luck in points
1.2 for Florida State
Luck-adjusted margin
Florida State by 25.8
Replay with same day's form
Central Arkansas 0% · Florida State 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2026 games · Central Arkansas · Florida State

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