luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 4 2026 · September 26, 2026

App State at NC State, Week 4 2026: who deserved to win?

NC State beat App State 41–31, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, NC State wins 5 of 10.

NC State won on an off day: it played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against App State it would win 84% of the time; with this day’s form, 53%. The numbers

Before kickoff NC State was a 79% favorite.

Final

App State Mountaineers 31
NC State Wolfpack 41

September 26, 2026 · Carter-Finley Stadium · Closing line: NC State −12.5

Luck index +47 NC State lucky · −47 App State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. App State wins 5, NC State wins 5.

  1. 1 APP 37 NCSU 10
  2. 2 APP 27 NCSU 10
  3. 3 APP 35 NCSU 24
  4. 4 APP 24 NCSU 17
  5. 5 APP 34 NCSU 31
  6. 6 APP 24 NCSU 27
  7. 7 APP 23 NCSU 30
  8. 8 APP 24 NCSU 34
  9. 9 APP 24 NCSU 41
  10. 10 APP 7 NCSU 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

NC State won on an off day

It played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against App State it would win 84% of the time; with this day’s form, 53%.

31 points apart for NC State: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
App State offenseEPA per play gained −0.34 +0.07 worse by 0.40
App State defenseEPA per play allowed +0.46 +0.07 worse by 0.39
NC State offenseEPA per play gained +0.46 +0.14 better by 0.32
NC State defenseEPA per play allowed −0.34 +0.14 better by 0.48

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

App State wins 47% of them, NC State 53%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: NC State by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
App State by 17+12.3%
App State by 9–1613.5%
App State by 1–820.3%
Level after regulation1.4%
NC State by 1–822.6%
NC State by 9–1615.7%
NC State by 17+14.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +12.1 points to NC State: the final margin was NC State by 10, without the luck App State by 2.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • J. London, 48 yds made · 59% expected
  • K. Vinesett, 23 yds made · 93% expected
  • K. Vinesett, 35 yds made · 81% expected
  • J. London, 42 yds missed · 71% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: App State 3 for 27 yards, NC State 4 for 45 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:13 False Start on NC State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% APP +1.1 pts
Q1 10:26 Illegal Block on App State, 7 yards 0% NCSU +0.4 pts
Q2 14:54 Personal Foul on NC State, 15 yards +1% APP +1.6 pts
Q3 7:36 Pass Interference on App State, 15 yards +1% NCSU +0.8 pts
Q3 4:31 Illegal Touching on App State, 5 yards, wiping out the play +1% NCSU +2.4 pts
Q4 3:59 Holding on NC State, 10 yards 0% APP +1.1 pts
Q4 1:23 Roughing the Passer on NC State, 15 yards, wiping out the play +2% APP +3.9 pts

When it happened

NC State’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while NC State was ahead in it, below while App State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:03 NC State converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +4% NCSU NCSU: Touchdown
2 Q1 10:31 NC State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +3% NCSU NCSU: Punt
3 Q4 11:28 App State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +4% APP APP: Touchdown
4 Q4 9:41 App State converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +3% APP APP: Turnover on downs
5 Q4 7:22 NC State converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +4% NCSU NCSU: Touchdown
6 Q4 5:45 NC State converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +4% NCSU NCSU: Touchdown
7 Q4 4:02 App State was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +2% NCSU APP: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 1:23 Roughing the Passer on NC State, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +2% APP APP: Missed field goal

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

App State 63% · NC State 37%

Final margin
NC State by 10
Luck in points
12.1 for NC State
Luck-adjusted margin
App State by 2.1
Replay with same day's form
App State 47% · NC State 53% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2026 games · App State · NC State

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