Week 4 2026 · September 26, 2026
Virginia Tech at Boston College, Week 4 2026: who deserved to win?
Virginia Tech beat Boston College 21–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Virginia Tech wins 8 of 10. Boston College had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 10 points of win probability to Boston College.
Before kickoff Virginia Tech was an 83% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 9:15 left): Holding on Boston College, 10 yards, worth 13 points of win probability to Virginia Tech.
Final
 Virginia Tech Hokies | 21 |
|---|---|
 Boston College Eagles | 14 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +19 Virginia Tech about even · −19 Boston College
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Virginia Tech wins 8, Boston College wins 2.
- 1 VT 34 BC 0
- 2 VT 25 BC 0
- 3 VT 24 BC 3
- 4 VT 23 BC 6
- 5 VT 21 BC 7
- 6 VT 13 BC 3
- 7 VT 17 BC 10
- 8 VT 17 BC 14
- 9 VT 13 BC 16
- 10 VT 5 BC 17
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Virginia Tech wins 81% of them, Boston College 19%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Virginia Tech by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Virginia Tech by 17+ | 35.6% |
| Virginia Tech by 9–16 | 24.3% |
| Virginia Tech by 1–8 | 17.3% |
| Level after regulation | 4.3% |
| Boston College by 1–8 | 11.2% |
| Boston College by 9–16 | 5.5% |
| Boston College by 17+ | 1.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Love, 45 yds made · 66% expected
- J. Love, 22 yds made · 97% expected
Penalties: Virginia Tech 4 for 45 yards, Boston College 8 for 89 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 3:14 | Holding on Boston College, 9 yards | +2% VT +1.7 pts |
| Q1 0:41 | Personal Foul on Boston College, 15 yards | +3% VT +1.8 pts |
| Q2 10:55 | Holding on Boston College, 10 yards | +2% VT +1.0 pts |
| Q2 8:09 | False Start on Virginia Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BC +0.7 pts |
| Q2 5:59 | Roughing the Passer on Boston College, 15 yards | +1% VT +0.8 pts |
| Q2 2:45 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Virginia Tech, 15 yards | +2% BC +0.9 pts |
| Q3 6:25 | Delay of Game on Boston College, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% VT +0.9 pts |
| Q4 9:15 | Holding on Boston College, 10 yards | +13% VT +3.0 pts |
| Q4 8:04 | Pass Interference on Boston College, 10 yards | +8% VT +1.6 pts |
| Q4 6:45 | Targeting on Virginia Tech, 15 yards | +10% BC +1.6 pts |
| Q4 2:00 | Holding on Virginia Tech, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +1% BC +1.3 pts |
| Q4 2:00 | Personal Foul on Boston College, 15 yards | +1% VT +1.5 pts |
When it happened
Boston College’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 74%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 10:58 | Virginia Tech was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected | +6% BC | VT: Punt |
| 2 | Q3 8:06 | Virginia Tech fumbled and Boston College recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +8% BC | VT: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q3 1:13 | Virginia Tech was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +10% BC | VT: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q4 9:15 | Holding on Boston College, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +13% VT | VT: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 8:05 | Virginia Tech’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +6% VT | VT: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 8:04 | Pass Interference on Boston College, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +8% VT | VT: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 6:45 | Targeting on Virginia Tech, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +10% BC | BC: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 5:18 | Boston College was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +8% VT | BC: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Virginia Tech 97% · Boston College 3%
- Final margin
- Virginia Tech by 7
- Luck in points
- 4.0 for Boston College
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Virginia Tech by 11.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Virginia Tech 81% · Boston College 19% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2026 games · 
Virginia Tech · 
Boston College
More from Week 4 2026
- Wake Forest at Louisville WAKE 30–27 · replay 38% for the winner
- App State at NC State NCSU 41–31 · replay 53% for the winner
- Georgia Tech at Stanford STAN 34–27 · replay 59% for the winner
- Clemson at California CLEM 24–10 · replay 73% for the winner
- Missouri State at SMU SMU 34–24 · replay 99% for the winner
- Bucknell at Pittsburgh PITT 59–0 · replay 100% for the winner
- Central Arkansas at Florida State FSU 34–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- William & Mary at Duke DUKE 62–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Delaware at Virginia UVA 42–3 · replay 100% for the winner
- Central Michigan at Miami MIA 52–3 · replay 100% for the winner
- Army at Temple ARMY 21–17 · replay 9% for the winner
- Iowa at Michigan IOWA 20–19 · replay 13% for the winner