ACC · 2026 season, in progress

Virginia Tech Hokies: luck and expected wins

Virginia Tech is 4–0 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 3.2 wins. Luck added 0.8: the 17th-luckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 1–0.

2026, game by game

How often Virginia Tech wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs VMI	W 73–3	100%	0
Week 2	vs Old Dominion	W 44–21	96%	+4
Week 3	@ Maryland	W 35–26	47%	+53
Week 4	@ Boston College	W 21–14	81%	+19

Wk 1 0 vs VMI

Wk 2 +4 vs ODU

Wk 3 +53 @ MD

Wk 4 +19 @ BC

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	Virginia Tech win chance
Week 5 · Oct 2	vs Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh by 6.0	35%
Week 6 · Oct 10	at California	Virginia Tech by 4.7	62%
Week 7 · Oct 17	vs Georgia Tech	Virginia Tech by 6.1	65%
Week 8 · Oct 24	at Clemson	Clemson by 3.7	41%
Week 10 · Nov 6	at SMU	SMU by 8.7	30%
Week 11 · Nov 14	vs Stanford	Virginia Tech by 13.7	79%
Week 12 · Nov 21	at Miami	Miami by 22.7	9%
Week 13 · Nov 28	vs Virginia	Virginia by 5.0	38%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Virginia Tech’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
3rd & 4th downs	+0.06	+8.5
Kicks	+0.03	+0.7
Fumble bounces	−0.10	−12.6

Luckiest wins

Wins Virginia Tech takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 5	@ NC State	W 23–21	45%	+55
2026 Week 3	@ Maryland	W 35–26	47%	+53
2026 Week 4	@ Boston College	W 21–14	81%	+19
2026 Week 2	vs Old Dominion	W 44–21	96%	+4
2025 Week 9	vs California	W 42–34	97%	+3

Unluckiest losses

Losses Virginia Tech would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 6	vs Wake Forest	L 23–30	52%	−52
2025 Week 1	vs South Carolina	L 11–24	49%	−49
2025 Week 13	vs Miami	L 17–34	39%	−39
2025 Week 7	@ Georgia Tech	L 20–35	23%	−23
2025 Week 3	vs Old Dominion	L 26–45	12%	−12

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	3–9	4.3	−1.3	2–1	–

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs South Carolina	L 11–24	49%	−49
Week 2	vs Vanderbilt	L 20–44	0%	0
Week 3	vs Old Dominion	L 26–45	12%	−12
Week 4	vs Wofford	W 38–6	100%	0
Week 5	@ NC State	W 23–21	45%	+55
Week 6	vs Wake Forest	L 23–30	52%	−52
Week 7	@ Georgia Tech	L 20–35	23%	−23
Week 9	vs California	W 42–34	97%	+3
Week 10	vs Louisville	L 16–28	5%	−5
Week 12	@ Florida State	L 14–34	10%	−10
Week 13	vs Miami	L 17–34	39%	−39
Week 14	@ Virginia	L 7–27	2%	−2