Week 5 2025 · September 27, 2025
Virginia Tech at NC State, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?
Virginia Tech beat NC State 23–21, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Virginia Tech wins 5 of 10. Luck ran its way: kicks alone were worth 10 points of win probability to Virginia Tech.
Before kickoff NC State was a 74% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 8:53 left): Virginia Tech converted 3rd & 8, worth 12 points of win probability to Virginia Tech.
Final
 Virginia Tech Hokies | 23 |
|---|---|
 NC State Wolfpack | 21 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +55 Virginia Tech lucky · −55 NC State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Virginia Tech wins 5, NC State wins 5.
- 1 VT 31 NCSU 10
- 2 VT 24 NCSU 10
- 3 VT 23 NCSU 14
- 4 VT 23 NCSU 18
- 5 VT 14 NCSU 11
- 6 VT 10 NCSU 13
- 7 VT 21 NCSU 27
- 8 VT 10 NCSU 20
- 9 VT 7 NCSU 21
- 10 VT 7 NCSU 31
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Virginia Tech wins 45% of them, NC State 55%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Virginia Tech by 2.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Virginia Tech by 17+ | 9.2% |
| Virginia Tech by 9–16 | 13.3% |
| Virginia Tech by 1–8 | 21.9% |
| Level after regulation | 1.6% |
| NC State by 1–8 | 23.4% |
| NC State by 9–16 | 17.1% |
| NC State by 17+ | 13.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Love, 39 yds made · 79% expected
- J. Love, 32 yds made · 89% expected
- J. Love, 49 yds made · 61% expected
Penalties: Virginia Tech 7 for 55 yards, NC State 2 for 21 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:16 | False Start on Virginia Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NCSU +0.7 pts |
| Q1 3:21 | Illegal Formation on NC State, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +3% VT +1.6 pts |
| Q2 6:44 | Penalty on NC State, 16 yards | +6% VT +2.5 pts |
| Q2 0:55 | False Start on Virginia Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NCSU +0.2 pts |
| Q2 0:35 | Holding on Virginia Tech, 10 yards | +3% NCSU +1.0 pts |
| Q3 7:19 | False Start on Virginia Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | +5% NCSU +1.8 pts |
| Q3 0:20 | Penalty on Virginia Tech, 15 yards | +3% NCSU +0.9 pts |
| Q4 14:33 | Pass Interference on Virginia Tech, 10 yards | +9% NCSU +2.3 pts |
| Q4 6:35 | Delay of Game on Virginia Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | +8% NCSU +1.4 pts |
When it happened
NC State’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 85%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 8:09 | NC State converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +7% NCSU | NCSU: Punt |
| 2 | Q4 14:33 | Pass Interference on Virginia Tech, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +9% NCSU | NCSU: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q4 13:49 | NC State converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +9% NCSU | NCSU: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q4 8:53 | Virginia Tech converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +12% VT | VT: Field goal |
| 5 | Q4 6:35 | Delay of Game on Virginia Tech, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +8% NCSU | NCSU: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 6:31 | J. Love made a 49-yard field goalKicks · 61% expected for him, 7 of 11 from 45+ before | +9% VT | VT: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 1:01 | NC State converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +7% NCSU | NCSU: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 0:42 | NC State was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected | +7% VT | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Virginia Tech 26% · NC State 74%
- Final margin
- Virginia Tech by 2
- Luck in points
- 6.5 for Virginia Tech
- Luck-adjusted margin
- NC State by 4.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Virginia Tech 45% · NC State 55% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · 
Virginia Tech · 
NC State
More from Week 5 2025
- Louisville at Pittsburgh LOU 34–27 · replay 11% for the winner
- California at Boston College CAL 28–24 · replay 28% for the winner
- Georgia Tech at Wake Forest GT 30–29 · replay 40% for the winner
- San José State at Stanford STAN 30–29 · replay 43% for the winner
- Florida State at Virginia UVA 46–38 · replay 78% for the winner
- Duke at Syracuse DUKE 38–3 · replay 96% for the winner
- Hawai'i at Air Force HAW 44–35 · replay 5% for the winner
- Marshall at Louisiana UL 54–51 · replay 29% for the winner
- Cincinnati at Kansas CIN 37–34 · replay 30% for the winner
- Houston at Oregon State HOU 27–24 · replay 34% for the winner
- Oregon at Penn State ORE 30–24 · replay 39% for the winner
- Rutgers at Minnesota MINN 31–28 · replay 41% for the winner