Week 5 2025 · September 27, 2025
Marshall at Louisiana, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?
Louisiana beat Marshall 54–51, but the replays lean toward Marshall: it takes 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: pre-snap flags alone were worth 14 points of win probability to Louisiana.
Before kickoff Marshall was a 56% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 11:11 left): Return touchdown by Marshall, worth 17 points of win probability to Marshall.
Final (OT)
 Marshall Thundering Herd | 51 |
|---|---|
 Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns | 54 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +71 Louisiana very lucky · −71 Marshall
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Marshall wins 7, Louisiana wins 3.
- 1 MRSH 40 UL 3
- 2 MRSH 59 UL 31
- 3 MRSH 53 UL 31
- 4 MRSH 41 UL 24
- 5 MRSH 51 UL 38
- 6 MRSH 35 UL 27
- 7 MRSH 37 UL 34
- 8 MRSH 38 UL 41
- 9 MRSH 21 UL 31
- 10 MRSH 33 UL 51
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Marshall wins 71% of them, Louisiana 29%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Louisiana by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Marshall by 17+ | 32.9% |
| Marshall by 9–16 | 17.1% |
| Marshall by 1–8 | 18.8% |
| Level after regulation | 4.1% |
| Louisiana by 1–8 | 13.4% |
| Louisiana by 9–16 | 7.0% |
| Louisiana by 17+ | 6.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- L. Quinn, 53 yds made · 47% expected
- T. Sterner, 26 yds made · 90% expected
- L. Quinn, 30 yds made · 86% expected
- T. Sterner, 35 yds made · 80% expected
- L. Quinn, 52 yds missed · 50% expected
- L. Quinn, 46 yds made · 60% expected
Penalties: Marshall 8 for 71 yards, Louisiana 2 for 30 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:02 | Holding on Marshall, 10 yards | +6% UL +3.2 pts |
| Q1 0:00 | Holding on Marshall, 10 yards | +4% UL +1.7 pts |
| Q2 5:39 | Intentional Grounding on Marshall, 9 yards | +4% UL +1.5 pts |
| Q2 2:42 | Roughing the Passer on Marshall, 15 yards | +2% UL +0.9 pts |
| Q2 0:23 | False Start on Marshall, 5 yards · pre-snap | +12% UL +3.8 pts |
| Q3 12:54 | Roughing the Passer on Louisiana, 15 yards | +4% MRSH +1.6 pts |
| Q4 10:22 | Pass Interference on Marshall, 12 yards | +5% UL +2.5 pts |
| Q4 9:05 | Ineligible Downfield on Marshall, 5 yards | +1% UL +0.6 pts |
| Q4 4:50 | Targeting on Louisiana, 15 yards | +5% UL +1.6 pts |
| Q4 0:40 | Offside on Marshall, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% UL +0.8 pts |
When it happened
Louisiana’s chance of winning
As low as 2% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:48 | Marshall converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +5% MRSH | MRSH: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 11:02 | Holding on Marshall, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +6% UL | UL: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 6:46 | Marshall was stopped on 3rd & 223rd & 4th downs · 18% expectedLouisiana was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expectedT. Sterner made a 26-yard field goalKicks · 90% expected for him | +9% UL | MRSH: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 11:11 | Return touchdown by MarshallSpecial teams | +17% MRSH | MRSH: Field goal |
| 5 | Q4 10:22 | Pass Interference on Marshall, 12 yardsJudgment calls | +5% UL | UL: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 5:53 | Louisiana converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +6% UL | UL: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 4:50 | Targeting on Louisiana, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +5% UL | MRSH: Touchdown |
| 8 | 2OT | L. Quinn made a 46-yard field goalKicks · 60% expected for him, 2 of 3 from 45+ before | +10% UL | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Marshall 40% · Louisiana 60%
- Final margin
- Louisiana by 3
- Luck in points
- 1.0 for Louisiana
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Louisiana by 2.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Marshall 71% · Louisiana 29% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · 
Marshall · 
Louisiana
More from Week 5 2025
- South Alabama at North Texas UNT 36–22 · replay 72% for the winner
- Arkansas State at UL Monroe ULM 28–16 · replay 97% for the winner
- App State at Boise State BOIS 47–14 · replay 98% for the winner
- Jacksonville State at Southern Miss USM 42–25 · replay 99% for the winner
- Liberty at Old Dominion ODU 21–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Georgia Southern at James Madison JMU 35–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Hawai'i at Air Force HAW 44–35 · replay 5% for the winner
- Louisville at Pittsburgh LOU 34–27 · replay 11% for the winner
- California at Boston College CAL 28–24 · replay 28% for the winner
- Cincinnati at Kansas CIN 37–34 · replay 30% for the winner
- Houston at Oregon State HOU 27–24 · replay 34% for the winner
- Oregon at Penn State ORE 30–24 · replay 39% for the winner