Week 5 2025 · September 27, 2025
Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 54 of the 61 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.
App State at Boise State, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?
Boise State beat App State 47–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Boise State wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Boise State was an 86% favorite.
Final
 App State Mountaineers | 14 |
|---|---|
 Boise State Broncos | 47 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +2 Boise State about even · −2 App State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. App State wins 0, Boise State wins 10.
- 1 APP 17 BOIS 22
- 2 APP 16 BOIS 27
- 3 APP 14 BOIS 31
- 4 APP 13 BOIS 33
- 5 APP 7 BOIS 29
- 6 APP 3 BOIS 29
- 7 APP 3 BOIS 31
- 8 APP 3 BOIS 36
- 9 APP 3 BOIS 41
- 10 APP 0 BOIS 48
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
App State wins 2% of them, Boise State 98%. The line is what actually happened: Boise State by 33.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| App State by 17+ | 0.1% |
| App State by 9–16 | 0.3% |
| App State by 1–8 | 1.0% |
| Level after regulation | 0.4% |
| Boise State by 1–8 | 4.4% |
| Boise State by 9–16 | 9.2% |
| Boise State by 17+ | 84.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Boomer, 25 yds made · 90% expected
- C. Boomer, 40 yds made · 72% expected
Penalties: App State 10 for 89 yards, Boise State 4 for 85 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:07 | Offside on App State, 4 yards · pre-snap | +1% BOIS +0.6 pts |
| Q1 7:20 | False Start on App State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BOIS +0.8 pts |
| Q1 6:20 | Pass Interference on App State, 15 yards | +1% BOIS +1.8 pts |
| Q2 9:59 | Offside on App State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BOIS +1.3 pts |
| Q2 6:05 | Roughing the Passer on Boise State, 15 yards | 0% APP +3.1 pts |
| Q2 2:20 | Face Mask on Boise State, 15 yards | 0% APP +1.2 pts |
| Q2 1:20 | False Start on App State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BOIS +1.2 pts |
| Q2 0:54 | Pass Interference on App State, 15 yards | 0% BOIS +0.6 pts |
| Q3 10:40 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on App State, 15 yards | +3% APP +4.8 pts |
| Q3 4:01 | Holding on Boise State, 50 yards | +1% APP +3.1 pts |
| Q3 0:27 | Delay of Game on App State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BOIS +0.6 pts |
| Q4 10:20 | Delay of Game on App State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BOIS +0.6 pts |
| Q4 8:47 | Unnecessary Roughness on App State, 15 yards | 0% BOIS +1.6 pts |
| Q4 3:04 | False Start on Boise State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% APP +0.4 pts |
When it happened
Boise State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:36 | Boise State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +2% BOIS | BOIS: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 6:36 | App State was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +1% BOIS | APP: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 6:20 | Pass Interference on App State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +1% BOIS | BOIS: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 2:38 | App State converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +1% APP | APP: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 1:49 | Return touchdown by Boise StateSpecial teams | +3% BOIS | BOIS: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 1:20 | False Start on App State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +1% BOIS | BOIS: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 10:40 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on App State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +3% APP | BOIS: Field goal |
| 8 | Q3 8:05 | Boise State converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +1% BOIS | BOIS: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
App State 0% · Boise State 100%
- Final margin
- Boise State by 33
- Luck in points
- 13.2 for Boise State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Boise State by 19.8
- Replay with same day's form
- App State 2% · Boise State 98% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here. Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 54 of the 61 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.
Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · 
App State · 
Boise State
More from Week 5 2025
- Hawai'i at Air Force HAW 44–35 · replay 5% for the winner
- Marshall at Louisiana UL 54–51 · replay 29% for the winner
- San José State at Stanford STAN 30–29 · replay 43% for the winner
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- South Alabama at North Texas UNT 36–22 · replay 72% for the winner
- San Diego State at Northern Illinois SDSU 6–3 · replay 82% for the winner
- Arkansas State at UL Monroe ULM 28–16 · replay 97% for the winner
- New Mexico State at New Mexico UNM 38–20 · replay 97% for the winner
- Jacksonville State at Southern Miss USM 42–25 · replay 99% for the winner
- Utah State at Vanderbilt VAN 55–35 · replay 100% for the winner
- Liberty at Old Dominion ODU 21–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Georgia Southern at James Madison JMU 35–10 · replay 100% for the winner