Pac-12 · 2026 season, in progress
Boise State Broncos: luck and expected wins
Boise State is 3–1 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 2.5 wins. Luck added 0.5: the 31st-luckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–1.
2026, game by game
How often Boise State wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Oregon | L 27–34 | 9% | −9 |
| Week 2 | vs Memphis | W 38–20 | 50% | +50 |
| Week 3 | vs South Dakota | W 38–24 | 97% | +3 |
| Week 4 | @ Western Michigan | W 32–7 | 97% | +3 |
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.
| Week | Game | Our pick | Boise State win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 · Oct 3 | vs Utah State |  Boise State by 18.8 | 88% |
| Week 6 · Oct 10 | at Fresno State | Boise State by 7.5 | 68% |
| Week 8 · Oct 24 | at Washington State | Boise State by 9.8 | 72% |
| Week 9 · Oct 31 | vs Texas State | Boise State by 12.8 | 78% |
| Week 10 · Nov 7 | at Colorado State | Boise State by 13.0 | 78% |
| Week 11 · Nov 14 | vs Oregon State | Boise State by 13.4 | 79% |
| Week 12 · Nov 21 | vs San Diego State | Boise State by 17.1 | 84% |
Where the luck came from, 2026
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Boise State’s favor.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.17 | +18.5 |
| Kicks | +0.14 | −1.1 |
Luckiest wins
Wins Boise State takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 14 | @ Utah State | W 25–24 | 43% | +57 |
| 2025 Week 9 | @ Nevada | W 24–3 | 45% | +55 |
| 2026 Week 2 | vs Memphis | W 38–20 | 50% | +50 |
| 2025 Week 4 | @ Air Force | W 49–37 | 75% | +25 |
| 2025 Week 15 | vs UNLV | W 38–21 | 87% | +13 |
Unluckiest losses
Losses Boise State would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 12 | @ San Diego State | L 7–17 | 17% | −17 |
| 2025 Week 1 | @ South Florida | L 7–34 | 13% | −13 |
| 2026 Week 1 | @ Oregon | L 27–34 | 9% | −9 |
| 2025 Week 6 | @ Notre Dame | L 7–28 | 8% | −8 |
| 2025 Week 10 | vs Fresno State | L 7–30 | 4% | −4 |
Earlier seasons
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Postseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 9–4 | 7.7 | +1.3 | 1–0 | 0–1 |
2025, game by game
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ South Florida | L 7–34 | 13% | −13 |
| Week 2 | vs Eastern Washington | W 51–14 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 4 | @ Air Force | W 49–37 | 75% | +25 |
| Week 5 | vs App State | W 47–14 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 6 | @ Notre Dame | L 7–28 | 8% | −8 |
| Week 7 | vs New Mexico | W 41–25 | 89% | +11 |
| Week 8 | vs UNLV | W 56–31 | 95% | +5 |
| Week 9 | @ Nevada | W 24–3 | 45% | +55 |
| Week 10 | vs Fresno State | L 7–30 | 4% | −4 |
| Week 12 | @ San Diego State | L 7–17 | 17% | −17 |
| Week 13 | vs Colorado State | W 49–21 | 96% | +4 |
| Week 14 | @ Utah State | W 25–24 | 43% | +57 |
| Week 15 | vs UNLV | W 38–21 | 87% | +13 |
| Bucked Up LA Bowl | vs Washington | L 10–38 | 3% | −3 |
More
- 2026 college football luck rankings
- Pac-12 teams by luck
- Pac-12:
Colorado State, 
Fresno State, 
Oregon State, 
San Diego State, 
Texas State, 
Utah State, 
Washington State
How many wins does Boise State have in 2026?
3–1 so far. Replayed with the way both teams played, its games were worth 2.5 wins.
Was Boise State lucky or unlucky in 2026?
Neither: about as lucky as the average team so far: +0.5 wins of luck, the 31st-luckiest of 138 FBS teams.
What was Boise State’s luckiest season?
2025: 9–4 from play worth 7.7 wins, +1.3 of luck. The unluckiest: 2026, 3–1 from play worth 2.5 (+0.5).