Week 2 2025 · September 5, 2025
Eastern Washington at Boise State, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?
Boise State beat Eastern Washington 51–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Boise State wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Boise State was a 99% favorite.
Final
 Eastern Washington Eagles | 14 |
|---|---|
 Boise State Broncos | 51 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Boise State about even · 0 Eastern Washington
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Eastern Washington wins 0, Boise State wins 10.
- 1 EWU 15 BOIS 31
- 2 EWU 6 BOIS 31
- 3 EWU 13 BOIS 44
- 4 EWU 10 BOIS 45
- 5 EWU 9 BOIS 48
- 6 EWU 3 BOIS 46
- 7 EWU 3 BOIS 49
- 8 EWU 3 BOIS 53
- 9 EWU 17 BOIS 73
- 10 EWU 7 BOIS 72
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Eastern Washington wins 0% of them, Boise State 100%. The line is what actually happened: Boise State by 37.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Eastern Washington by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Eastern Washington by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Eastern Washington by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Boise State by 1–8 | 0.6% |
| Boise State by 9–16 | 2.2% |
| Boise State by 17+ | 97.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Boomer, 46 yds missed · 61% expected
- C. Moore, 35 yds made · 80% expected
- C. Moore, 24 yds missed · 92% expected
- Extra point missed · 98% expected
Penalties: Eastern Washington 5 for 39 yards, Boise State 5 for 45 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:12 | False Start on Eastern Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BOIS +0.9 pts |
| Q1 2:21 | Holding on Eastern Washington, 10 yards | 0% BOIS +1.7 pts |
| Q2 5:05 | False Start on Eastern Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BOIS +0.4 pts |
| Q2 4:41 | Holding on Boise State, 10 yards | 0% EWU +0.9 pts |
| Q2 1:49 | Running Into the Kicker on Boise State, 5 yards | 0% EWU +0.2 pts |
| Q2 0:26 | Holding on Eastern Washington, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% BOIS +0.9 pts |
| Q4 12:47 | Holding on Boise State, 10 yards | 0% EWU +1.9 pts |
| Q4 7:39 | Pass Interference on Boise State, 15 yards | 0% EWU +1.3 pts |
| Q4 6:06 | Holding on Eastern Washington, 9 yards, wiping out the play | +1% BOIS +3.4 pts |
| Q4 2:00 | False Start on Boise State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% EWU +0.3 pts |
When it happened
Boise State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:50 | Boise State missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 98% of the time | +0% EWU | BOIS: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 12:04 | Eastern Washington fumbled and Boise State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +0% BOIS | EWU: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 11:11 | Boise State converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +0% BOIS | BOIS: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 9:11 | Eastern Washington converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +0% EWU | EWU: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 5:10 | Eastern Washington converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +0% EWU | EWU: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q1 2:57 | Eastern Washington was stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +0% BOIS | EWU: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 0:26 | Holding on Eastern Washington, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +0% BOIS | BOIS: End of half |
| 8 | Q4 6:06 | Holding on Eastern Washington, 9 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +1% BOIS | BOIS: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Eastern Washington 0% · Boise State 100%
- Final margin
- Boise State by 37
- Luck in points
- 1.4 for Boise State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Boise State by 35.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Eastern Washington 0% · Boise State 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · 
Eastern Washington · 
Boise State
More from Week 2 2025
- San Diego State at Washington State WSU 36–13 · replay 44% for the winner
- Fresno State at Oregon State FRES 36–27 · replay 46% for the winner
- UCLA at UNLV UNLV 30–23 · replay 64% for the winner
- Sacramento State at Nevada NEV 20–17 · replay 68% for the winner
- Idaho State at New Mexico UNM 32–22 · replay 84% for the winner
- San José State at Texas TEX 38–7 · replay 86% for the winner
- Sam Houston at Hawai'i HAW 37–20 · replay 89% for the winner
- Cal Poly at Utah UTAH 63–9 · replay 95% for the winner
- Northern Colorado at Colorado State CSU 21–17 · replay 96% for the winner
- Northern Iowa at Wyoming WYO 31–7 · replay 99% for the winner
- UC Davis at Washington WASH 70–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Utah State at Texas A&M TA&M 44–22 · replay 100% for the winner