Week 2 2025 · September 6, 2025
Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 53 of the 63 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.
Fresno State at Oregon State, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?
Fresno State beat Oregon State 36–27, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Fresno State wins 5 of 10. Luck ran its way: kicks alone were worth 10 points of win probability to Fresno State.
Before kickoff Oregon State was a 54% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:19 left): Oregon State’s two-point try failed, worth 16 points of win probability to Fresno State.
Final
 Fresno State Bulldogs | 36 |
|---|---|
 Oregon State Beavers | 27 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +54 Fresno State lucky · −54 Oregon State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Fresno State wins 5, Oregon State wins 5.
- 1 FRES 29 ORST 3
- 2 FRES 24 ORST 7
- 3 FRES 24 ORST 14
- 4 FRES 24 ORST 17
- 5 FRES 27 ORST 24
- 6 FRES 17 ORST 20
- 7 FRES 10 ORST 17
- 8 FRES 31 ORST 42
- 9 FRES 24 ORST 41
- 10 FRES 7 ORST 31
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Fresno State wins 46% of them, Oregon State 54%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Fresno State by 9.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Fresno State by 17+ | 10.0% |
| Fresno State by 9–16 | 13.3% |
| Fresno State by 1–8 | 21.4% |
| Level after regulation | 1.8% |
| Oregon State by 1–8 | 23.4% |
| Oregon State by 9–16 | 17.1% |
| Oregon State by 17+ | 13.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Ojeda, 27 yds made · 90% expected
- D. Lynch, 34 yds made · 82% expected
- D. Lynch, 28 yds made · 89% expected
- C. Ojeda, 40 yds missed · 73% expected
Penalties: Fresno State 7 for 81 yards, Oregon State 10 for 70 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 7:16 | Holding on Fresno State, 10 yards | 0% FRES 0.0 pts |
| Q1 7:08 | Holding on Fresno State, 10 yards | +4% ORST +1.7 pts |
| Q1 3:24 | Holding on Fresno State, 14 yards | +1% ORST +0.2 pts |
| Q1 3:17 | Holding on Fresno State, 10 yards | +1% ORST +0.6 pts |
| Q2 12:22 | Holding on Oregon State, 10 yards | +3% FRES +1.3 pts |
| Q2 3:10 | Holding on Fresno State, 17 yards | +3% ORST +1.0 pts |
| Q2 0:57 | False Start on Oregon State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% FRES +0.4 pts |
| Q2 0:57 | False Start on Oregon State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% FRES +0.2 pts |
| Q2 0:16 | False Start on Oregon State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% FRES +0.3 pts |
| Q2 0:16 | False Start on Oregon State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% FRES +0.3 pts |
| Q3 14:15 | Holding on Oregon State, 10 yards | +5% FRES +1.6 pts |
| Q3 11:02 | False Start on Oregon State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +5% FRES +1.6 pts |
| Q3 5:07 | Holding on Oregon State, 10 yards | +6% FRES +1.6 pts |
| Q4 14:12 | Delay of Game on Fresno State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% ORST +0.7 pts |
| Q4 12:23 | False Start on Oregon State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% FRES +0.5 pts |
| Q4 9:00 | Holding on Oregon State, 10 yards | +3% FRES +0.6 pts |
| Q4 7:35 | Pass Interference on Fresno State, 15 yards | +5% ORST +0.9 pts |
When it happened
Oregon State’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 64%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 3:23 | C. Ojeda made a 27-yard field goalKicks · 90% expected for him | +7% FRES | ORST: Turnover |
| 2 | Q3 10:30 | Oregon State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +6% ORST | ORST: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 9:01 | Oregon State converted 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +11% ORST | ORST: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 5:43 | Oregon State converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +6% ORST | ORST: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 9:06 | D. Lynch made a 28-yard field goalKicks · 89% expected for him | +11% ORST | FRES: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 4:57 | Oregon State was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +8% FRES | ORST: Missed field goal |
| 7 | Q4 4:18 | C. Ojeda missed a 40-yard field goalKicks · 73% expected for him | +13% FRES | ORST: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 1:19 | Oregon State’s two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +16% FRES | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Fresno State 99% · Oregon State 1%
- Final margin
- Fresno State by 9
- Luck in points
- 4.6 for Oregon State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Fresno State by 13.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Fresno State 46% · Oregon State 54% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here. Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 53 of the 63 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · 
Fresno State · 
Oregon State
More from Week 2 2025
- San Diego State at Washington State WSU 36–13 · replay 44% for the winner
- UCLA at UNLV UNLV 30–23 · replay 64% for the winner
- Sacramento State at Nevada NEV 20–17 · replay 68% for the winner
- Idaho State at New Mexico UNM 32–22 · replay 84% for the winner
- San José State at Texas TEX 38–7 · replay 86% for the winner
- Sam Houston at Hawai'i HAW 37–20 · replay 89% for the winner
- Northern Colorado at Colorado State CSU 21–17 · replay 96% for the winner
- Northern Iowa at Wyoming WYO 31–7 · replay 99% for the winner
- Eastern Washington at Boise State BOIS 51–14 · replay 100% for the winner
- Utah State at Texas A&M TA&M 44–22 · replay 100% for the winner
- Boston College at Michigan State MSU 42–40 · replay 8% for the winner
- Bryant at Massachusetts BRY 27–26 · replay 10% for the winner