Week 2 2025 · September 6, 2025
San Diego State at Washington State, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?
Washington State beat San Diego State 36–13, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Washington State wins 4 of 10.
Before kickoff Washington State was a 56% favorite.
Final
 San Diego State Aztecs | 13 |
|---|---|
 Washington State Cougars | 36 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +56 Washington State lucky · −56 San Diego State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. San Diego State wins 6, Washington State wins 4.
- 1 SDSU 32 WSU 3
- 2 SDSU 31 WSU 10
- 3 SDSU 35 WSU 20
- 4 SDSU 31 WSU 20
- 5 SDSU 23 WSU 16
- 6 SDSU 21 WSU 18
- 7 SDSU 14 WSU 17
- 8 SDSU 13 WSU 20
- 9 SDSU 14 WSU 26
- 10 SDSU 17 WSU 36
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
San Diego State wins 56% of them, Washington State 44%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Washington State by 23.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| San Diego State by 17+ | 18.4% |
| San Diego State by 9–16 | 18.7% |
| San Diego State by 1–8 | 18.4% |
| Level after regulation | 1.6% |
| Washington State by 1–8 | 20.8% |
| Washington State by 9–16 | 11.2% |
| Washington State by 17+ | 10.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Stevens, 49 yds made · 56% expected
- J. Stevens, 42 yds made · 70% expected
Penalties: San Diego State 5 for 23 yards, Washington State 8 for 55 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:00 | Delay of Game on Washington State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SDSU +0.8 pts |
| Q2 13:10 | False Start on San Diego State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% WSU +0.5 pts |
| Q2 11:38 | Holding on Washington State, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +7% SDSU +3.0 pts |
| Q2 10:36 | False Start on Washington State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SDSU +0.4 pts |
| Q2 1:55 | Holding on Washington State, 10 yards | +2% SDSU +0.8 pts |
| Q2 1:23 | Illegal Formation on Washington State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SDSU +0.2 pts |
| Q3 5:17 | Ineligible Downfield on San Diego State, 5 yards | 0% WSU +0.7 pts |
| Q3 0:00 | Holding on Washington State, 10 yards | 0% SDSU +2.0 pts |
| Q4 14:15 | False Start on Washington State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SDSU +0.4 pts |
| Q4 12:13 | Ineligible Downfield on Washington State, 5 yards | 0% SDSU +0.9 pts |
| Q4 9:17 | False Start on San Diego State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WSU +0.9 pts |
| Q4 3:57 | Offside on San Diego State, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | 0% WSU +4.6 pts |
| Q4 3:53 | Offside on San Diego State, 3 yards · pre-snap | 0% WSU +3.6 pts |
When it happened
Washington State’s chance of winning
As low as 37% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 10:44 | San Diego State was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected | +4% WSU | SDSU: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 10:00 | San Diego State converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expectedDelay of Game on Washington State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +7% SDSU | SDSU: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 9:13 | Washington State was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected | +3% SDSU | WSU: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 6:57 | Washington State was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected | +4% SDSU | WSU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 2:57 | Washington State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +5% WSU | WSU: Field goal |
| 6 | Q2 14:48 | J. Stevens made a 49-yard field goalKicks · 56% expected for him, 0 of 0 from 45+ before | +4% WSU | WSU: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 11:38 | Holding on Washington State, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +7% SDSU | SDSU: Punt |
| 8 | Q2 6:32 | Washington State was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected | +7% SDSU | WSU: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
San Diego State 2% · Washington State 98%
- Final margin
- Washington State by 23
- Luck in points
- 5.2 for Washington State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Washington State by 17.8
- Replay with same day's form
- San Diego State 56% · Washington State 44% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · 
San Diego State · 
Washington State
More from Week 2 2025
- Fresno State at Oregon State FRES 36–27 · replay 46% for the winner
- UCLA at UNLV UNLV 30–23 · replay 64% for the winner
- Sacramento State at Nevada NEV 20–17 · replay 68% for the winner
- Idaho State at New Mexico UNM 32–22 · replay 84% for the winner
- San José State at Texas TEX 38–7 · replay 86% for the winner
- Sam Houston at Hawai'i HAW 37–20 · replay 89% for the winner
- Northern Colorado at Colorado State CSU 21–17 · replay 96% for the winner
- Northern Iowa at Wyoming WYO 31–7 · replay 99% for the winner
- Eastern Washington at Boise State BOIS 51–14 · replay 100% for the winner
- Utah State at Texas A&M TA&M 44–22 · replay 100% for the winner
- Boston College at Michigan State MSU 42–40 · replay 8% for the winner
- Bryant at Massachusetts BRY 27–26 · replay 10% for the winner