Week 2 2025 · September 6, 2025
San José State at Texas, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?
Texas beat San José State 38–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Texas wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Texas was a 99% favorite.
Final
 San José State Spartans | 7 |
|---|---|
 Texas Longhorns | 38 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +14 Texas about even · −14 San José State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. San José State wins 1, Texas wins 9.
- 1 SJSU 24 TEX 17
- 2 SJSU 21 TEX 24
- 3 SJSU 24 TEX 31
- 4 SJSU 14 TEX 24
- 5 SJSU 17 TEX 30
- 6 SJSU 18 TEX 35
- 7 SJSU 3 TEX 24
- 8 SJSU 0 TEX 24
- 9 SJSU 17 TEX 47
- 10 SJSU 3 TEX 42
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
San José State wins 14% of them, Texas 86%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texas by 31.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| San José State by 17+ | 1.7% |
| San José State by 9–16 | 4.2% |
| San José State by 1–8 | 7.4% |
| Level after regulation | 1.0% |
| Texas by 1–8 | 17.1% |
| Texas by 9–16 | 19.1% |
| Texas by 17+ | 49.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- D. Lynch, 47 yds missed · 58% expected
- D. Lynch, 50 yds missed · 52% expected
- M. Shipley, 47 yds made · 59% expected
Penalties: San José State 3 for 15 yards, Texas 11 for 105 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:50 | Holding on Texas, 10 yards | 0% SJSU +0.6 pts |
| Q1 12:18 | Offside on Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SJSU +0.7 pts |
| Q1 7:35 | Illegal Shift on San José State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TEX +1.0 pts |
| Q1 6:34 | Roughing the Kicker on Texas, 15 yards | +1% SJSU +4.3 pts |
| Q2 13:05 | Illegal Block on Texas, 15 yards | 0% SJSU +0.2 pts |
| Q2 12:45 | Holding on San José State, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% TEX +1.9 pts |
| Q2 6:30 | Holding on Texas, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% SJSU +3.0 pts |
| Q2 0:12 | Roughing the Passer on Texas, 15 yards | 0% SJSU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 14:20 | Intentional Grounding on San José State, 0 yards | 0% TEX 0.0 pts |
| Q3 1:30 | Illegal Block on Texas, 10 yards | 0% SJSU +1.3 pts |
| Q4 8:39 | Holding on Texas, 10 yards | 0% SJSU +1.1 pts |
| Q4 8:00 | Illegal Shift on Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SJSU +0.7 pts |
| Q4 6:00 | False Start on Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SJSU +0.5 pts |
| Q4 3:30 | Illegal Substitution on Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SJSU +0.5 pts |
When it happened
Texas’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:50 | San José State converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected | +0% SJSU | SJSU: Missed field goal |
| 2 | Q1 12:08 | San José State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +0% SJSU | SJSU: Missed field goal |
| 3 | Q1 10:49 | San José State was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +0% TEX | SJSU: Missed field goal |
| 4 | Q1 10:22 | D. Lynch missed a 47-yard field goalKicks · 58% expected for him, 0 of 1 from 45+ before | +0% TEX | SJSU: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 8:03 | Texas was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +0% SJSU | TEX: Punt |
| 6 | Q1 6:34 | Roughing the Kicker on Texas, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +1% SJSU | SJSU: Punt |
| 7 | Q1 4:19 | San José State was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +0% TEX | SJSU: Punt |
| 8 | Q1 2:52 | Texas converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected | +0% TEX | TEX: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
San José State 0% · Texas 100%
- Final margin
- Texas by 31
- Luck in points
- 11.7 for Texas
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Texas by 19.3
- Replay with same day's form
- San José State 14% · Texas 86% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · 
San José State · 
Texas
More from Week 2 2025
- San Diego State at Washington State WSU 36–13 · replay 44% for the winner
- Fresno State at Oregon State FRES 36–27 · replay 46% for the winner
- Arizona State at Mississippi State MSST 24–20 · replay 47% for the winner
- South Florida at Florida USF 18–16 · replay 56% for the winner
- UCLA at UNLV UNLV 30–23 · replay 64% for the winner
- South Carolina State at South Carolina SC 38–10 · replay 68% for the winner
- Sacramento State at Nevada NEV 20–17 · replay 68% for the winner
- Kansas at Missouri MIZ 42–31 · replay 72% for the winner
- Ole Miss at Kentucky MISS 30–23 · replay 78% for the winner
- Idaho State at New Mexico UNM 32–22 · replay 84% for the winner
- Michigan at Oklahoma OU 24–13 · replay 84% for the winner
- Sam Houston at Hawai'i HAW 37–20 · replay 89% for the winner