Week 2 2025 · September 6, 2025
Sam Houston at Hawai'i, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?
Hawai'i beat Sam Houston 37–20, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Hawai'i wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Hawai'i was a 69% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 5:45 left): Return touchdown by Hawai'i, worth 11 points of win probability to Hawai'i.
Final
 Sam Houston Bearkats | 20 |
|---|---|
 Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors | 37 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +11 Hawai'i about even · −11 Sam Houston
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sam Houston wins 1, Hawai'i wins 9.
- 1 SHSU 16 HAW 9
- 2 SHSU 16 HAW 19
- 3 SHSU 14 HAW 20
- 4 SHSU 13 HAW 21
- 5 SHSU 7 HAW 19
- 6 SHSU 13 HAW 28
- 7 SHSU 6 HAW 24
- 8 SHSU 7 HAW 28
- 9 SHSU 3 HAW 28
- 10 SHSU 0 HAW 31
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Sam Houston wins 11% of them, Hawai'i 89%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Hawai'i by 17.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sam Houston by 17+ | 0.7% |
| Sam Houston by 9–16 | 2.9% |
| Sam Houston by 1–8 | 7.3% |
| Level after regulation | 1.2% |
| Hawai'i by 1–8 | 19.6% |
| Hawai'i by 9–16 | 19.3% |
| Hawai'i by 17+ | 48.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- R. Lopez, 28 yds made · 87% expected
- R. Lopez, 29 yds made · 86% expected
- K. Matsuzawa, 38 yds made · 76% expected
- K. Matsuzawa, 43 yds made · 67% expected
- K. Matsuzawa, 19 yds made · 95% expected
Penalties: Sam Houston 8 for 95 yards, Hawai'i 5 for 60 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2:21 | Pass Interference on Sam Houston, 15 yards | +2% HAW +1.2 pts |
| Q1 1:32 | Holding on Hawai'i, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +5% SHSU +2.8 pts |
| Q2 7:00 | Holding on Sam Houston, 10 yards | +2% HAW +1.1 pts |
| Q3 7:25 | Pass Interference on Sam Houston, 15 yards | +1% HAW +1.9 pts |
| Q3 4:59 | Intentional Grounding on Sam Houston, 10 yards | +2% HAW +2.2 pts |
| Q3 1:02 | False Start on Hawai'i, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SHSU +0.4 pts |
| Q4 13:31 | Holding on Sam Houston, 10 yards | +2% HAW +0.6 pts |
| Q4 12:22 | Holding on Sam Houston, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +1% HAW +1.9 pts |
| Q4 10:39 | Personal Foul on Hawai'i, 15 yards | +1% SHSU +1.6 pts |
| Q4 8:15 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Sam Houston, 15 yards | +2% SHSU +2.4 pts |
| Q4 1:27 | Personal Foul on Hawai'i, 15 yards | 0% SHSU +0.5 pts |
| Q4 0:55 | Personal Foul on Hawai'i, 15 yards | 0% SHSU +1.6 pts |
| Q4 0:12 | Holding on Sam Houston, 10 yards | 0% HAW +2.5 pts |
When it happened
Hawai'i’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 7:48 | Hawai'i converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +4% HAW | HAW: Turnover |
| 2 | Q1 5:46 | Hawai'i fumbled and Sam Houston recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +4% SHSU | HAW: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 1:32 | Holding on Hawai'i, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +5% SHSU | SHSU: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 11:48 | Hawai'i was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 66% expected | +3% SHSU | HAW: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 11:42 | Hawai'i converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected | +3% HAW | HAW: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 5:45 | Return touchdown by Hawai'iSpecial teams | +11% HAW | HAW: Field goal |
| 7 | Q3 3:18 | Return touchdown by Sam HoustonSpecial teams | +9% SHSU | SHSU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 13:37 | Hawai'i converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +6% SHSU | HAW: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sam Houston 5% · Hawai'i 95%
- Final margin
- Hawai'i by 17
- Luck in points
- 6.9 for Hawai'i
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Hawai'i by 10.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Sam Houston 11% · Hawai'i 89% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · 
Sam Houston · 
Hawai'i
More from Week 2 2025
- Tulsa at New Mexico State NMSU 21–14 · replay 24% for the winner
- San Diego State at Washington State WSU 36–13 · replay 44% for the winner
- Fresno State at Oregon State FRES 36–27 · replay 46% for the winner
- Liberty at Jacksonville State JXST 34–24 · replay 60% for the winner
- UCLA at UNLV UNLV 30–23 · replay 64% for the winner
- Sacramento State at Nevada NEV 20–17 · replay 68% for the winner
- Missouri State at Marshall MOST 21–20 · replay 76% for the winner
- Idaho State at New Mexico UNM 32–22 · replay 84% for the winner
- San José State at Texas TEX 38–7 · replay 86% for the winner
- Delaware at Colorado COLO 31–7 · replay 88% for the winner
- Louisiana Tech at LSU LSU 23–7 · replay 95% for the winner
- Northern Colorado at Colorado State CSU 21–17 · replay 96% for the winner