luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 2 2025 · September 6, 2025

Louisiana Tech at LSU, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?

LSU beat Louisiana Tech 23–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, LSU wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff LSU was a 99% favorite.

Final

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 7
LSU Tigers 23

September 6, 2025 · Tiger Stadium (LA) · Closing line: LSU −36.5

Luck index +5 LSU about even · −5 Louisiana Tech

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Louisiana Tech wins 0, LSU wins 10.

  1. 1 LT 3 LSU 7
  2. 2 LT 13 LSU 21
  3. 3 LT 7 LSU 19
  4. 4 LT 10 LSU 24
  5. 5 LT 7 LSU 24
  6. 6 LT 6 LSU 27
  7. 7 LT 3 LSU 27
  8. 8 LT 3 LSU 29
  9. 9 LT 10 LSU 41
  10. 10 LT 0 LSU 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Louisiana Tech wins 5% of them, LSU 95%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: LSU by 16.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Louisiana Tech by 17+0.1%
Louisiana Tech by 9–161.1%
Louisiana Tech by 1–83.0%
Level after regulation0.8%
LSU by 1–810.4%
LSU by 9–1617.9%
LSU by 17+66.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.7 points to LSU: the final margin was LSU by 16, without the luck LSU by 10.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • D. Ramos, 51 yds missed · 53% expected
  • D. Ramos, 23 yds made · 93% expected
  • D. Ramos, 46 yds made · 62% expected
  • D. Ramos, 19 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Louisiana Tech 8 for 80 yards, LSU 8 for 62 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:01 Holding on Louisiana Tech, 10 yards 0% LSU +1.2 pts
Q1 9:57 Illegal Formation on LSU, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LT +0.6 pts
Q1 2:03 Illegal Shift on LSU, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LT +1.0 pts
Q2 9:33 Penalty on Louisiana Tech, 15 yards 0% LSU +1.6 pts
Q2 7:25 Pass Interference on Louisiana Tech, 15 yards 0% LSU +1.5 pts
Q2 7:20 Pass Interference on Louisiana Tech, 15 yards 0% LSU +0.9 pts
Q2 1:55 Pass Interference on Louisiana Tech, 12 yards 0% LSU +0.4 pts
Q2 1:55 False Start on LSU, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LT +0.3 pts
Q3 13:48 Personal Foul on LSU, 15 yards 0% LT +3.3 pts
Q3 6:45 Delay of Game on LSU, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LT +0.5 pts
Q4 13:52 Holding on LSU, 10 yards 0% LT +0.8 pts
Q4 11:14 False Start on Louisiana Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LSU +0.7 pts
Q4 10:38 Illegal Formation on Louisiana Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LSU +0.3 pts
Q4 10:26 False Start on LSU, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LT +0.5 pts
Q4 6:24 Pass Interference on LSU, 12 yards 0% LT +1.2 pts
Q4 3:01 Illegal Substitution on Louisiana Tech, 3 yards · pre-snap 0% LSU +0.6 pts

When it happened

LSU’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while LSU was ahead in it, below while Louisiana Tech was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:39 Louisiana Tech was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +0% LSU LT: Punt
2 Q1 8:06 D. Ramos missed a 51-yard field goalKicks · 53% expected for him, 8 of 15 from 45+ before +0% LT LSU: Touchdown
3 Q1 6:23 Louisiana Tech was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +0% LSU LT: Punt
4 Q1 4:40 LSU converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +0% LSU LSU: Touchdown
5 Q1 2:03 Illegal Shift on LSU, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +0% LT LT: Punt
6 Q1 0:12 LSU converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +0% LSU LSU: Field goal
7 Q2 2:51 LSU fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +0% LSU LSU: Punt
8 Q3 13:48 Personal Foul on LSU, 15 yardsJudgment calls +0% LT LT: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Louisiana Tech 4% · LSU 96%

Final margin
LSU by 16
Luck in points
5.7 for LSU
Luck-adjusted margin
LSU by 10.3
Replay with same day's form
Louisiana Tech 5% · LSU 95% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · Louisiana Tech · LSU

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