SEC · 2026 season, in progress
LSU Tigers: luck and expected wins
LSU is 3–1 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 3.3 wins. Luck cost 0.3: the 40th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–1.
2026, game by game
How often LSU wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Clemson | W 51–10 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 2 | vs Louisiana Tech | W 45–14 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 3 | @ Ole Miss | L 24–32 | 31% | −31 |
| Week 4 | vs Texas A&M | W 35–6 | 100% | 0 |
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.
| Week | Game | Our pick | LSU win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 · Oct 3 | vs McNeese |  LSU by 52.4 | 100% |
| Week 6 · Oct 10 | at Kentucky | LSU by 7.7 | 68% |
| Week 7 · Oct 17 | vs Mississippi State | LSU by 9.4 | 72% |
| Week 8 · Oct 24 | at Auburn | LSU by 6.7 | 66% |
| Week 10 · Nov 7 | vs Alabama |  Alabama by 1.2 | 47% |
| Week 11 · Nov 14 | vs Texas | LSU by 0.1 | 50% |
| Week 12 · Nov 21 | at Tennessee | LSU by 0.2 | 51% |
| Week 13 · Nov 28 | at Arkansas | LSU by 16.6 | 84% |
Where the luck came from, 2026
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in LSU’s favor.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.08 | +18.3 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.04 | −2.1 |
| Pre-snap flags | −0.08 | −7.7 |
Luckiest wins
Wins LSU takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 3 | vs Florida | W 20–10 | 30% | +70 |
| 2025 Week 1 | @ Clemson | W 17–10 | 59% | +41 |
| 2025 Week 12 | vs Arkansas | W 23–22 | 59% | +41 |
| 2025 Week 13 | vs Western Kentucky | W 13–10 | 75% | +25 |
| 2025 Week 7 | vs South Carolina | W 20–10 | 95% | +5 |
Unluckiest losses
Losses LSU would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Kinder's Texas Bowl | vs Houston | L 35–38 | 40% | −40 |
| 2025 Week 5 | @ Ole Miss | L 19–24 | 34% | −34 |
| 2026 Week 3 | @ Ole Miss | L 24–32 | 31% | −31 |
| 2025 Week 8 | @ Vanderbilt | L 24–31 | 25% | −25 |
| 2025 Week 11 | @ Alabama | L 9–20 | 9% | −9 |
Earlier seasons
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Postseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 7–5 | 5.9 | +1.1 | 3–3 | 0–1 |
2025, game by game
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Clemson | W 17–10 | 59% | +41 |
| Week 2 | vs Louisiana Tech | W 23–7 | 95% | +5 |
| Week 3 | vs Florida | W 20–10 | 30% | +70 |
| Week 4 | vs SE Louisiana | W 56–10 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 5 | @ Ole Miss | L 19–24 | 34% | −34 |
| Week 7 | vs South Carolina | W 20–10 | 95% | +5 |
| Week 8 | @ Vanderbilt | L 24–31 | 25% | −25 |
| Week 9 | vs Texas A&M | L 25–49 | 3% | −3 |
| Week 11 | @ Alabama | L 9–20 | 9% | −9 |
| Week 12 | vs Arkansas | W 23–22 | 59% | +41 |
| Week 13 | vs Western Kentucky | W 13–10 | 75% | +25 |
| Week 14 | @ Oklahoma | L 13–17 | 4% | −4 |
| Kinder's Texas Bowl | vs Houston | L 35–38 | 40% | −40 |
More
- 2026 college football luck rankings
- SEC teams by luck
- SEC: Alabama,
Arkansas, 
Auburn, 
Florida, 
Georgia, 
Kentucky, 
Mississippi State, 
Missouri, 
Oklahoma, 
Ole Miss, 
South Carolina, 
Tennessee, 
Texas, 
Texas A&M, 
Vanderbilt
How many wins does LSU have in 2026?
3–1 so far. Replayed with the way both teams played, its games were worth 3.3 wins.
Was LSU lucky or unlucky in 2026?
Neither: about as lucky as the average team so far: −0.3 wins of luck, the 40th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams.
What was LSU’s luckiest season?
2025: 7–5 from play worth 5.9 wins, +1.1 of luck. The unluckiest: 2026, 3–1 from play worth 3.3 (−0.3).