Week 8 2025 · October 18, 2025
LSU at Vanderbilt, Week 8 2025: who deserved to win?
Vanderbilt beat LSU 31–24, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 8 of 10.
Before kickoff Vanderbilt was a 54% favorite.
Final
 LSU Tigers | 24 |
|---|---|
 Vanderbilt Commodores | 31 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +25 Vanderbilt about even · −25 LSU
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. LSU wins 2, Vanderbilt wins 8.
- 1 LSU 14 VAN 0
- 2 LSU 13 VAN 9
- 3 LSU 7 VAN 10
- 4 LSU 9 VAN 14
- 5 LSU 21 VAN 28
- 6 LSU 7 VAN 17
- 7 LSU 14 VAN 27
- 8 LSU 7 VAN 23
- 9 LSU 0 VAN 20
- 10 LSU 7 VAN 34
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
LSU wins 25% of them, Vanderbilt 75%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vanderbilt by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| LSU by 17+ | 2.5% |
| LSU by 9–16 | 6.1% |
| LSU by 1–8 | 15.1% |
| Level after regulation | 4.2% |
| Vanderbilt by 1–8 | 23.6% |
| Vanderbilt by 9–16 | 21.9% |
| Vanderbilt by 17+ | 26.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- D. Ramos, 48 yds made · 60% expected
- D. Ramos, 52 yds missed · 53% expected
- D. Ramos, 42 yds made · 71% expected
- B. Taylor, 46 yds made · 65% expected
- D. Ramos, 23 yds made · 95% expected
Penalties: LSU 7 for 52 yards, Vanderbilt 4 for 35 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 4:26 | False Start on Vanderbilt, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LSU +0.4 pts |
| Q1 4:04 | Offside on LSU, 0 yards · pre-snap | +1% VAN +0.5 pts |
| Q1 3:30 | Holding on LSU, 10 yards | +1% VAN +0.6 pts |
| Q1 0:49 | Pass Interference on Vanderbilt, 15 yards | +1% LSU +0.2 pts |
| Q2 4:00 | Illegal Formation on LSU, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% VAN +0.8 pts |
| Q3 9:03 | Holding on LSU, 8 yards | +1% VAN +0.5 pts |
| Q3 2:35 | False Start on Vanderbilt, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% LSU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 2:05 | Pass Interference on LSU, 15 yards | +5% VAN +1.7 pts |
| Q4 12:37 | False Start on LSU, 4 yards · pre-snap | +1% VAN +0.2 pts |
| Q4 11:35 | Holding on Vanderbilt, 10 yards | +1% LSU +0.6 pts |
| Q4 7:30 | Holding on LSU, 10 yards | +3% VAN +0.7 pts |
When it happened
Vanderbilt’s chance of winning
As low as 45% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 1:50 | LSU converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +5% LSU | LSU: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 13:10 | Vanderbilt converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +5% VAN | VAN: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 6:40 | Vanderbilt was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +4% LSU | VAN: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 2:33 | D. Ramos missed a 52-yard field goalKicks · 53% expected for him, 13 of 21 from 45+ before | +5% VAN | LSU: Field goal |
| 5 | Q2 1:43 | Vanderbilt was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expected | +8% LSU | VAN: Field goal |
| 6 | Q3 3:54 | Vanderbilt was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expected | +6% LSU | VAN: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 2:05 | Pass Interference on LSU, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +5% VAN | VAN: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 13:25 | LSU converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +6% LSU | LSU: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
LSU 11% · Vanderbilt 89%
- Final margin
- Vanderbilt by 7
- Luck in points
- 0.8 for LSU
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Vanderbilt by 7.8
- Replay with same day's form
- LSU 25% · Vanderbilt 75% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · 
LSU · 
Vanderbilt
More from Week 8 2025
- Texas at Kentucky TEX 16–13 · replay 7% for the winner
- Missouri at Auburn MIZ 23–17 · replay 32% for the winner
- Tennessee at Alabama ALA 37–20 · replay 75% for the winner
- Texas A&M at Arkansas TA&M 45–42 · replay 78% for the winner
- Oklahoma at South Carolina OU 26–7 · replay 83% for the winner
- Mississippi State at Florida FLA 23–21 · replay 85% for the winner
- Ole Miss at Georgia UGA 43–35 · replay 87% for the winner
- Wyoming at Air Force AF 24–21 · replay 13% for the winner
- Louisville at Miami LOU 24–21 · replay 24% for the winner
- Washington State at Virginia UVA 22–20 · replay 29% for the winner
- Florida International at Western Kentucky FIU 25–6 · replay 33% for the winner
- Southern Miss at Louisiana USM 22–10 · replay 34% for the winner