Week 8 2025 · October 18, 2025
Ole Miss at Georgia, Week 8 2025: who deserved to win?
Georgia beat Ole Miss 43–35, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Georgia wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Georgia was a 69% favorite.
Final
 Ole Miss Rebels | 35 |
|---|---|
 Georgia Bulldogs | 43 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +13 Georgia about even · −13 Ole Miss
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Ole Miss wins 1, Georgia wins 9.
- 1 MISS 21 UGA 14
- 2 MISS 27 UGA 31
- 3 MISS 35 UGA 42
- 4 MISS 27 UGA 38
- 5 MISS 14 UGA 28
- 6 MISS 13 UGA 30
- 7 MISS 14 UGA 35
- 8 MISS 0 UGA 24
- 9 MISS 0 UGA 28
- 10 MISS 7 UGA 45
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Ole Miss wins 13% of them, Georgia 87%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Georgia by 8.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Ole Miss by 17+ | 1.4% |
| Ole Miss by 9–16 | 3.9% |
| Ole Miss by 1–8 | 7.0% |
| Level after regulation | 1.6% |
| Georgia by 1–8 | 20.6% |
| Georgia by 9–16 | 18.6% |
| Georgia by 17+ | 47.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- P. Woodring, 51 yds made · 57% expected
- P. Woodring, 35 yds made · 85% expected
- P. Woodring, 42 yds made · 74% expected
Penalties: Ole Miss 4 for 40 yards, Georgia 3 for 37 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:38 | Pass Interference on Georgia, 15 yards | +2% MISS +1.4 pts |
| Q1 1:19 | Horse Collar Tackle on Ole Miss, 14 yards | +3% UGA +1.6 pts |
| Q2 4:07 | Pass Interference on Georgia, 15 yards | +2% MISS +0.6 pts |
| Q2 2:46 | Holding on Georgia, 7 yards | +8% MISS +3.0 pts |
| Q3 12:58 | Pass Interference on Ole Miss, 15 yards | +3% UGA +1.1 pts |
| Q3 9:07 | False Start on Ole Miss, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% UGA +0.7 pts |
| Q4 14:31 | Offside on Ole Miss, 6 yards · pre-snap | +2% UGA +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Georgia’s chance of winning
As low as 24% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 5:47 | Ole Miss converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +5% MISS | MISS: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 14:56 | Georgia converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +5% UGA | UGA: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 9:36 | Georgia converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +5% UGA | UGA: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 2:46 | Holding on Georgia, 7 yardsJudgment calls | +8% MISS | MISS: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 6:45 | Ole Miss was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 68% expected | +5% UGA | MISS: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 2:12 | Georgia fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% UGA | UGA: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 1:42 | Georgia was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 67% expected | +6% MISS | UGA: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 12:44 | Ole Miss was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +5% UGA | MISS: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Ole Miss 30% · Georgia 70%
- Final margin
- Georgia by 8
- Luck in points
- 4.9 for Georgia
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Georgia by 3.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Ole Miss 13% · Georgia 87% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · 
Ole Miss · 
Georgia
More from Week 8 2025
- Texas at Kentucky TEX 16–13 · replay 7% for the winner
- Missouri at Auburn MIZ 23–17 · replay 32% for the winner
- LSU at Vanderbilt VAN 31–24 · replay 75% for the winner
- Tennessee at Alabama ALA 37–20 · replay 75% for the winner
- Texas A&M at Arkansas TA&M 45–42 · replay 78% for the winner
- Oklahoma at South Carolina OU 26–7 · replay 83% for the winner
- Mississippi State at Florida FLA 23–21 · replay 85% for the winner
- Wyoming at Air Force AF 24–21 · replay 13% for the winner
- Louisville at Miami LOU 24–21 · replay 24% for the winner
- Washington State at Virginia UVA 22–20 · replay 29% for the winner
- Florida International at Western Kentucky FIU 25–6 · replay 33% for the winner
- Southern Miss at Louisiana USM 22–10 · replay 34% for the winner