Week 8 2025 · October 18, 2025
Mississippi State at Florida, Week 8 2025: who deserved to win?
Florida beat Mississippi State 23–21, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Florida wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Florida was a 73% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:03 left): Mississippi State converted 3rd & 9, worth 9 points of win probability to Mississippi State.
Final
 Mississippi State Bulldogs | 21 |
|---|---|
 Florida Gators | 23 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +15 Florida about even · −15 Mississippi State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Mississippi State wins 1, Florida wins 9.
- 1 MSST 28 FLA 20
- 2 MSST 21 FLA 23
- 3 MSST 13 FLA 17
- 4 MSST 27 FLA 35
- 5 MSST 38 FLA 49
- 6 MSST 27 FLA 43
- 7 MSST 24 FLA 44
- 8 MSST 7 FLA 31
- 9 MSST 17 FLA 48
- 10 MSST 10 FLA 48
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Mississippi State wins 15% of them, Florida 85%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Florida by 2.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Mississippi State by 17+ | 2.6% |
| Mississippi State by 9–16 | 3.9% |
| Mississippi State by 1–8 | 8.2% |
| Level after regulation | 2.2% |
| Florida by 1–8 | 19.4% |
| Florida by 9–16 | 18.4% |
| Florida by 17+ | 45.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- T. Smack, 24 yds made · 96% expected
- T. Smack, 54 yds made · 51% expected
- K. Ferrie, 41 yds missed · 72% expected
- T. Smack, 53 yds made · 53% expected
Penalties: Mississippi State 9 for 65 yards, Florida 6 for 55 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 5:45 | False Start on Florida, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MSST +0.7 pts |
| Q1 3:33 | Unnecessary Roughness on Mississippi State, 0 yards | +2% FLA +0.7 pts |
| Q2 7:24 | Holding on Florida, 10 yards | +1% MSST +0.6 pts |
| Q2 3:36 | Delay of Game on Florida, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MSST +0.4 pts |
| Q2 3:13 | Personal Foul on Florida, 15 yards | +2% MSST +1.1 pts |
| Q2 1:46 | False Start on Mississippi State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% FLA +0.3 pts |
| Q3 13:46 | Illegal Shift on Mississippi State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% FLA +0.8 pts |
| Q3 11:48 | Illegal Formation on Mississippi State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% FLA +0.5 pts |
| Q4 13:41 | Illegal Substitution on Mississippi State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% FLA +0.7 pts |
| Q4 10:37 | Personal Foul on Mississippi State, 15 yards | +2% FLA +1.0 pts |
| Q4 9:12 | Roughing the Passer on Mississippi State, 15 yards | +4% FLA +2.0 pts |
| Q4 8:29 | Pass Interference on Florida, 14 yards | +2% MSST +1.3 pts |
| Q4 5:51 | Holding on Mississippi State, 10 yards | +1% FLA +0.6 pts |
| Q4 2:42 | False Start on Mississippi State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% FLA +0.5 pts |
| Q4 2:22 | Pass Interference on Florida, 6 yards | +8% MSST +2.2 pts |
When it happened
Florida’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 1:36 | Mississippi State was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected | +7% FLA | MSST: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 8:39 | Mississippi State fumbled and Florida recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +5% FLA | MSST: Missed field goal |
| 3 | Q2 1:36 | K. Ferrie missed a 41-yard field goalKicks · 72% expected for him | +5% FLA | MSST: End of half |
| 4 | Q3 7:16 | Mississippi State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +4% MSST | MSST: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 6:49 | T. Smack made a 53-yard field goalKicks · 53% expected for him, 13 of 19 from 45+ before | +5% FLA | FLA: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 5:51 | Mississippi State was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedHolding on Mississippi State, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +5% FLA | MSST: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 2:22 | Pass Interference on Florida, 6 yardsJudgment calls | +8% MSST | MSST: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 1:03 | Mississippi State converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +8% MSST | MSST: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Mississippi State 81% · Florida 19%
- Final margin
- Florida by 2
- Luck in points
- 7.5 for Florida
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Mississippi State by 5.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Mississippi State 15% · Florida 85% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · 
Mississippi State · 
Florida
More from Week 8 2025
- Texas at Kentucky TEX 16–13 · replay 7% for the winner
- Missouri at Auburn MIZ 23–17 · replay 32% for the winner
- LSU at Vanderbilt VAN 31–24 · replay 75% for the winner
- Tennessee at Alabama ALA 37–20 · replay 75% for the winner
- Texas A&M at Arkansas TA&M 45–42 · replay 78% for the winner
- Oklahoma at South Carolina OU 26–7 · replay 83% for the winner
- Ole Miss at Georgia UGA 43–35 · replay 87% for the winner
- Wyoming at Air Force AF 24–21 · replay 13% for the winner
- Louisville at Miami LOU 24–21 · replay 24% for the winner
- Washington State at Virginia UVA 22–20 · replay 29% for the winner
- Florida International at Western Kentucky FIU 25–6 · replay 33% for the winner
- Southern Miss at Louisiana USM 22–10 · replay 34% for the winner