SEC · 2026 season, in progress

Mississippi State Bulldogs: luck and expected wins

Mississippi State is 4–0 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 3.7 wins. Luck added 0.3: the 42nd-luckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 2–0.

2026, game by game

How often Mississippi State wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs UL Monroe	W 62–13	100%	0
Week 2	@ Minnesota	W 38–13	99%	+1
Week 3	@ South Carolina	W 41–34	73%	+27
Week 4	vs Missouri	W 31–24	95%	+5

Wk 1 0 vs ULM

Wk 2 +1 @ MINN

Wk 3 +27 @ SC

Wk 4 +5 vs MIZ

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	Mississippi State win chance
Week 5 · Oct 3	vs Alabama	Alabama by 7.5	32%
Week 7 · Oct 17	at LSU	LSU by 9.4	28%
Week 8 · Oct 24	vs Oklahoma	Mississippi State by 4.9	62%
Week 9 · Oct 31	at Texas	Texas by 12.5	23%
Week 10 · Nov 7	vs Vanderbilt	Mississippi State by 8.6	70%
Week 11 · Nov 14	vs Auburn	Mississippi State by 6.7	65%
Week 12 · Nov 21	vs Tennessee Tech	Mississippi State by 29.9	96%
Week 13 · Nov 27	at Ole Miss	Ole Miss by 2.6	44%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Mississippi State’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
3rd & 4th downs	+0.32	+13.8
Kicks	+0.05	−4.7
Fumble bounces	−0.02	−1.5
Pre-snap flags	−0.08	−0.6

Luckiest wins

Wins Mississippi State takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 10	@ Arkansas	W 38–35	23%	+77
2025 Week 2	vs Arizona State	W 24–20	47%	+53
2026 Week 3	@ South Carolina	W 41–34	73%	+27
2025 Week 4	vs Northern Illinois	W 38–10	88%	+12
2026 Week 4	vs Missouri	W 31–24	95%	+5

Unluckiest losses

Losses Mississippi State would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 9	vs Texas	L 38–45	61%	−61
2025 Week 5	vs Tennessee	L 34–41	23%	−23
2025 Week 14	vs Ole Miss	L 19–38	22%	−22
2026 Duke's Mayo Bowl	vs Wake Forest	L 29–43	20%	−20
2025 Week 8	@ Florida	L 21–23	15%	−15

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	5–7	4.8	+0.2	2–3	0–1

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Southern Miss	W 34–17	96%	+4
Week 2	vs Arizona State	W 24–20	47%	+53
Week 3	vs Alcorn State	W 63–0	100%	0
Week 4	vs Northern Illinois	W 38–10	88%	+12
Week 5	vs Tennessee	L 34–41	23%	−23
Week 6	@ Texas A&M	L 9–31	0%	0
Week 8	@ Florida	L 21–23	15%	−15
Week 9	vs Texas	L 38–45	61%	−61
Week 10	@ Arkansas	W 38–35	23%	+77
Week 11	vs Georgia	L 21–41	1%	−1
Week 12	@ Missouri	L 27–49	3%	−3
Week 14	vs Ole Miss	L 19–38	22%	−22
Duke's Mayo Bowl	vs Wake Forest	L 29–43	20%	−20