College football · Week 10 2026 · Saturday, November 7
Vanderbilt vs Mississippi State prediction and pick
Our Vanderbilt Commodores at Mississippi State Bulldogs pick: Mississippi State by 8.6, 70% to win. The forecast rates every team against the opponents it has played, this season and last, and adds home field. No betting information goes in.
An early look, 6 weeks ahead: it sharpens as the game comes up. Updated every day until kickoff, then frozen and scored. After the game this page shows who deserved to win.
Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±16.9, so about 51% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.
Sat, Nov 7, time to be announced · Davis Wade Stadium
Mississippi State by 8.6 · 70% to win
Ours: Mississippi State by 8.6Vanderbilt win 30%Mississippi State win 70%5649423528211470714212835424956← Vanderbilt win byMississippi State win by →P50P90P95
Show as a table
Outcome
Chance
Vanderbilt win
30.4%
Mississippi State win
69.6%
Middle 50%: Vanderbilt by 3 to Mississippi State by 20
50%
Middle 90%: Vanderbilt by 19 to Mississippi State by 36
90%
Middle 95%: Vanderbilt by 24 to Mississippi State by 42
95%
Exactly Mississippi State by 3
6.3%
Exactly Mississippi State by 7
5.3%
Exactly Vanderbilt by 3
5.2%
Exactly Mississippi State by 14
4.0%
Exactly Mississippi State by 17
3.6%
P50
Half of games like this end between Vanderbilt by 3 and Mississippi State by 20.
P90
9 in 10 between Vanderbilt by 19 and Mississippi State by 36.
P95
19 in 20 between Vanderbilt by 24 and Mississippi State by 42.
Coin-flip wins: the wins each team’s games were worth with only the kicks, bounces, drops and calls re-rolled, the record adjusted for luck. Luck in wins: actual wins minus what the play was worth.
Vanderbilt vs Mississippi State: questions and answers
Who will win Vanderbilt vs Mississippi State?
Our forecast picks Mississippi State, with 70% to win; Vanderbilt win 30% of the time.
What’s the spread for Vanderbilt vs Mississippi State?
Our spread: Mississippi State −8.6. The betting line isn’t out yet. Ours uses no betting information, so where the two differ is where our read of the teams differs from the market’s.
When is Vanderbilt vs Mississippi State?
Saturday, November 7, 2026 (kickoff time to be announced), at Davis Wade Stadium.
Vanderbilt at 
Mississippi State
