SEC · 2026 season, in progress
Vanderbilt Commodores: luck and expected wins
Vanderbilt is 3–1 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 2.8 wins. Luck added 0.2: the 59th-luckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 1–1.
2026, game by game
How often Vanderbilt wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Austin Peay | W 28–9 | 95% | +5 |
| Week 2 | vs Delaware | W 35–26 | 74% | +26 |
| Week 3 | vs NC State | W 35–31 | 77% | +23 |
| Week 4 | @ Auburn | L 15–21 | 33% | −33 |
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.
| Week | Game | Our pick | Vanderbilt win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 · Oct 3 | at Georgia |  Georgia by 18.9 | 12% |
| Week 6 · Oct 10 | vs Ole Miss |  Ole Miss by 1.7 | 46% |
| Week 7 · Oct 17 | vs Arkansas |  Vanderbilt by 11.2 | 75% |
| Week 8 · Oct 24 | at Kentucky |  Kentucky by 4.0 | 40% |
| Week 10 · Nov 7 | at Mississippi State |  Mississippi State by 8.6 | 30% |
| Week 11 · Nov 14 | vs Alabama |  Alabama by 12.9 | 22% |
| Week 12 · Nov 21 | at Florida |  Florida by 13.4 | 21% |
| Week 13 · Nov 28 | vs Tennessee |  Tennessee by 5.2 | 38% |
Where the luck came from, 2026
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Vanderbilt’s favor.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Kicks | +0.03 | +0.2 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.06 | −4.0 |
| Pre-snap flags | −0.09 | −7.1 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.17 | −7.9 |
Luckiest wins
Wins Vanderbilt takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 3 | @ South Carolina | W 31–7 | 67% | +33 |
| 2025 Week 9 | vs Missouri | W 17–10 | 67% | +33 |
| 2026 Week 2 | vs Delaware | W 35–26 | 74% | +26 |
| 2025 Week 8 | vs LSU | W 31–24 | 75% | +25 |
| 2026 Week 3 | vs NC State | W 35–31 | 77% | +23 |
Unluckiest losses
Losses Vanderbilt would win most often in a replay.
Earlier seasons
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Postseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 10–2 | 9.3 | +0.7 | 3–1 | 0–1 |
2025, game by game
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Charleston Southern | W 45–3 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 2 | @ Virginia Tech | W 44–20 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 3 | @ South Carolina | W 31–7 | 67% | +33 |
| Week 4 | vs Georgia State | W 70–21 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 5 | vs Utah State | W 55–35 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 6 | @ Alabama | L 14–30 | 11% | −11 |
| Week 8 | vs LSU | W 31–24 | 75% | +25 |
| Week 9 | vs Missouri | W 17–10 | 67% | +33 |
| Week 10 | @ Texas | L 31–34 | 26% | −26 |
| Week 11 | vs Auburn | W 45–38 | 89% | +11 |
| Week 13 | vs Kentucky | W 45–17 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 14 | @ Tennessee | W 45–24 | 95% | +5 |
| ReliaQuest Bowl | vs Iowa | L 27–34 | 53% | −53 |
More
- 2026 college football luck rankings
- SEC teams by luck
- SEC: Alabama,
Arkansas, 
Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, 
LSU, Mississippi State, 
Missouri, 
Oklahoma, Ole Miss, 
South Carolina, Tennessee, 
Texas, 
Texas A&M
How many wins does Vanderbilt have in 2026?
3–1 so far. Replayed with the way both teams played, its games were worth 2.8 wins.
Was Vanderbilt lucky or unlucky in 2026?
Neither: about as lucky as the average team so far: +0.2 wins of luck, the 59th-luckiest of 138 FBS teams.
What was Vanderbilt’s luckiest season?
2025: 10–2 from play worth 9.3 wins, +0.7 of luck. The unluckiest: 2026, 3–1 from play worth 2.8 (+0.2).