Week 3 2025 · September 13, 2025
Vanderbilt at South Carolina, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?
Vanderbilt beat South Carolina 31–7, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10.
Before kickoff South Carolina was a 58% favorite.
Final
 Vanderbilt Commodores | 31 |
|---|---|
 South Carolina Gamecocks | 7 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +33 Vanderbilt lucky · −33 South Carolina
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Vanderbilt wins 7, South Carolina wins 3.
- 1 VAN 45 SC 14
- 2 VAN 45 SC 21
- 3 VAN 41 SC 24
- 4 VAN 38 SC 24
- 5 VAN 34 SC 24
- 6 VAN 24 SC 17
- 7 VAN 24 SC 21
- 8 VAN 24 SC 27
- 9 VAN 27 SC 35
- 10 VAN 17 SC 34
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Vanderbilt wins 67% of them, South Carolina 33%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vanderbilt by 24.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Vanderbilt by 17+ | 26.5% |
| Vanderbilt by 9–16 | 18.8% |
| Vanderbilt by 1–8 | 20.2% |
| Level after regulation | 5.2% |
| South Carolina by 1–8 | 16.3% |
| South Carolina by 9–16 | 7.1% |
| South Carolina by 17+ | 6.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- M. Love, 53 yds missed · 49% expected
- B. Taylor, 51 yds made · 56% expected
Penalties: Vanderbilt 4 for 25 yards, South Carolina 7 for 75 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 0:43 | Pass Interference on South Carolina, 15 yards | 0% VAN +1.3 pts |
| Q2 11:12 | Illegal Substitution on South Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% VAN +0.8 pts |
| Q2 4:58 | False Start on Vanderbilt, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SC +0.5 pts |
| Q2 4:08 | Roughing the Passer on South Carolina, 15 yards | +4% VAN +1.6 pts |
| Q2 1:30 | False Start on South Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% VAN +0.6 pts |
| Q2 0:34 | False Start on South Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% VAN +0.3 pts |
| Q3 4:07 | Personal Foul on Vanderbilt, 15 yards | +3% SC +2.6 pts |
| Q3 3:52 | False Start on Vanderbilt, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SC +0.5 pts |
| Q3 3:16 | Roughing the Passer on South Carolina, 14 yards | +2% VAN +1.6 pts |
| Q4 7:50 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on South Carolina, 16 yards | 0% VAN +0.6 pts |
| Q4 5:29 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Vanderbilt, 0 yards | 0% SC 0.0 pts |
When it happened
South Carolina’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 67%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:21 | Vanderbilt converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +4% VAN | VAN: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 10:07 | South Carolina converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +6% SC | SC: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 6:06 | Vanderbilt converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +4% VAN | VAN: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 5:14 | Vanderbilt fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +4% VAN | VAN: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 4:08 | Roughing the Passer on South Carolina, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +4% VAN | VAN: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 1:56 | Vanderbilt converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +6% VAN | VAN: End of half |
| 7 | Q3 9:36 | South Carolina converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +5% SC | SC: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q3 8:03 | South Carolina was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected | +6% VAN | SC: Turnover on downs |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Vanderbilt 97% · South Carolina 3%
- Final margin
- Vanderbilt by 24
- Luck in points
- 12.0 for Vanderbilt
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Vanderbilt by 12.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Vanderbilt 67% · South Carolina 33% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · 
Vanderbilt · 
South Carolina
More from Week 3 2025
- Georgia at Tennessee UGA 44–41 · replay 20% for the winner
- Florida at LSU LSU 20–10 · replay 30% for the winner
- Texas A&M at Notre Dame TA&M 41–40 · replay 37% for the winner
- Arkansas at Ole Miss MISS 41–35 · replay 37% for the winner
- UTEP at Texas TEX 27–10 · replay 89% for the winner
- Eastern Michigan at Kentucky UK 48–23 · replay 90% for the winner
- South Alabama at Auburn AUB 31–15 · replay 91% for the winner
- Wisconsin at Alabama ALA 38–14 · replay 96% for the winner
- Louisiana at Missouri MIZ 52–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Temple OU 42–3 · replay 100% for the winner
- Alcorn State at Mississippi State MSST 63–0 · replay 100% for the winner
- Middle Tennessee at Nevada MTSU 14–13 · replay 21% for the winner